Botswana Weather Outlook: Drier and hotter conditions forecast for 2026/27

Travellers planning a trip to Botswana between October 2026 and March 2027 should prepare for hotter and potentially drier-than-normal conditions. Botswana's Department of Meteorological Services (DMS) is forecasting below-normal rainfall across the entire country throughout the 2026/27 season, together with above-normal temperatures.

The outlook covers Botswana's summer rainfall season, including the important period from November to March when many parts of the country normally receive much of their annual rainfall.

Below-normal rainfall expected across Botswana

The rainfall outlook is consistently dry for the entire forecast period:

• October–December 2026: Below-normal rainfall countrywide. Normal rainfall during this period ranges from about 50 mm in Kgalagadi to 210 mm in Chobe.
• November 2026–January 2027: Below-normal rainfall, with normal totals ranging from 50 mm in Kgalagadi to 330 mm in Chobe.
• December 2026–February 2027: Below-normal rainfall countrywide. Normal rainfall ranges from 70 mm in Kgalagadi to 390 mm in Chobe.
• January–March 2027: Below-normal rainfall is again expected throughout Botswana, with normal rainfall ranging from 85 mm in Kgalagadi to 340 mm in Chobe.

For travellers, this does not mean that Botswana will be completely dry. Summer thunderstorms and rainfall can still occur, sometimes producing heavy downpours in a short period. The seasonal forecast indicates that overall rainfall is likely to be lower than the long-term normal, rather than predicting the weather on individual days.

Above-normal temperatures and heatwave risk

Temperatures are also expected to remain above normal throughout the forecast period.

From October to December 2026, normal mean temperatures range from around 31°C in eastern Botswana to 33°C in the northwest. For January to March 2027, normal mean temperatures range from approximately 30°C in the east to 34°C in the northwest.

With temperatures forecast to be above these averages, travellers should be prepared for potentially intense heat, particularly during the hottest part of the day. The DMS also warns of a high risk of frequent heatwaves.

This is particularly relevant for visitors planning self-drive trips, walking activities or game drives. Carry sufficient drinking water, avoid strenuous activities during the hottest hours and make sure your vehicle is properly prepared for long distances and hot conditions.

Strong El Niño adds to the dry-season risk

The forecast is also influenced by the expected return of strong El Niño conditions. According to the DMS, there is a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño event from November 2026 to January 2027.

El Niño is typically associated with drier conditions over Botswana, although its effects vary from one event to another and can be influenced by other climate factors.

The combination of below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures therefore raises concerns about drought and water availability during the 2026/27 season.

What does this mean for Botswana travellers?

The forecast does not mean you should change your Botswana travel plans, but it is worth taking the conditions into account.

If you are visiting during the hot summer months, expect high temperatures and potentially less rainfall than usual. Wildlife and landscapes can respond differently to these conditions depending on the location and availability of water.

For self-drive travellers, the usual summer precautions remain important: check road conditions before setting out, carry plenty of water, keep your vehicle fuelled and be prepared for changing conditions after thunderstorms.

The forecast will also be updated as the season approaches and progresses, so travellers should check shorter-range weather forecasts before travelling rather than relying solely on this seasonal outlook.

In short: Botswana is heading into the 2026/27 summer season with a forecast for below-normal rainfall, above-normal temperatures and an increased risk of heatwaves and drought, influenced in part by a potentially very strong El Niño.

 

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Botswana Weather Outlook 2026/27: What travellers should know about El Niño, drought and wildfire risk

If you're planning a safari or self-drive adventure in Botswana between late 2026 and early 2027, it's worth keeping an eye on the weather.

Botswana's Department of Meteorological Services has released its 2026/27 Seasonal Rainfall Outlook, forecasting a greater than 90% chance that El Niño conditions will develop and influence the country's rainy season from October 2026 to March 2027.

While this does not mean Botswana will receive no rain, it does suggest that rainfall is more likely to be below average, less reliable and interrupted by prolonged dry spells. At the same time, above-average temperatures are expected across much of the country.

What does this mean for travellers?

For visitors, particularly those planning safaris in destinations such as the Okavango Delta, Chobe National Park, the Central Kalahari Game Reserve or the Makgadikgadi Pans, the forecast could influence travel conditions in several ways.

Possible impacts include:

• Hotter daytime temperatures, especially during the summer months.
• Longer dry periods between rainfall events.
• Increased drought stress on vegetation and water sources.
• A higher likelihood of veld and bush fires, particularly from August onwards.
• More variable weather, with isolated heavy showers still possible despite an overall drier season.

As always, weather patterns can change during the season, so travellers should remain flexible and monitor local forecasts before and during their trip.

Elevated wildfire risk

One of the biggest concerns highlighted in the seasonal outlook is the increased wildfire risk.

Botswana experienced a favourable rainy season in 2025/26, resulting in abundant grass and vegetation growth across much of the country. While this is generally good news for wildlife and ecosystems, it has also created large amounts of dry fuel that can easily ignite during hot, dry conditions.

With El Niño expected to bring warmer temperatures and extended dry spells, authorities warn that the 2026 fire season, beginning in August, could see larger and faster-moving wildfires.

Travellers visiting national parks, game reserves and remote wilderness areas should be aware that temporary road closures, restricted access or smoky conditions are possible if significant fires occur.

Should you change your travel plans?

At this stage, there is no reason to cancel or postpone a trip to Botswana.

Botswana remains one of Africa's premier safari destinations, and many visitors travel during dry years without experiencing major disruptions. In fact, drier conditions often improve wildlife viewing as animals concentrate around permanent water sources.

However, sensible preparation is recommended:

• Carry plenty of drinking water, especially on self-drive trips.
• Pack lightweight clothing, a hat and high-factor sunscreen.
• Stay informed about local weather forecasts.
• Check park conditions before entering protected areas.
• Follow any fire safety advice issued by park authorities or accommodation providers.

Bottom line

Seasonal climate outlooks are designed to help governments, businesses and travellers prepare for the months ahead. They are probability forecasts, not guarantees, meaning local conditions may differ considerably from the overall seasonal outlook.

We'll continue to monitor the situation and publish updates should significant weather developments, wildfire activity or travel advisories affect visitors to Botswana during the 2026/27 season.

 

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Botswana: Winter temperature outlook (May - July 2018)!

Botswana's Department of Meteorological Services (DMS) has released the "Botswana Winter Outlook (May to July 2018)". According to the DMS, normal temperatures with a tendency to below-normal are likely to be experienced throughout Botswana between May 2018 and July 2018.

Normal maximum and minimum temperatures for:

• The northern parts of Botswana (Ngamiland, Chobe and northern parts of the Central District): Normal with a tendency towards below-normal temperatures. Normal maximum and minimum temperatures for this region are 27.8°C and 9°C respectively..
• The eastern parts of Botswana (Northeast and southern parts of the Central District): Normal with a tendency towards below-normal temperatures. Normal maximum and minimum temperatures for this region are 24.0°C and 7.2°C respectively.
• The southern and western parts of Botswana (Kgalagadi, Ghanzi, Southern, Southeast Kgatleng and Kweneng): Normal with a tendency towards below-normal temperatures. Normal maximum and minimum temperatures for this region are 23.6°C and 5.1 °C respectively.
  

Normal to below normal temperatures are expected over Botswana during May 2018 to July 2018. Cold spells will be experienced from time to time, due to local and intra-seasonal variations.

STATEMENT SEASONAL FOR MJJ 2018.pdf

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