Travellers planning a trip to Southern Africa during the 2026/27 rainy season from October 2026 to March 2027 may want to keep an eye on the latest regional climate outlook. The consensus forecast from the Thirty-Third Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF-33) points to a generally drier-than-normal start to the season across much of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region, followed by below-normal rainfall across large parts of central and southern Southern Africa early in 2027.
The outlook does not mean that it will not rain. Seasonal forecasts describe the likelihood of rainfall patterns over several months rather than predicting the weather on a particular day. For travellers, however, the forecast provides an early indication of what conditions could look like when planning safaris, self-drive holidays and other outdoor trips.
October to December 2026: A potentially dry start across much of Southern Africa
For the first part of the 2026/27 rainfall season, below-normal rainfall is favoured across the bulk of the SADC region.
This could be particularly relevant for travellers visiting traditionally dry areas such as Namibia, Botswana and parts of South Africa, where the first summer rains can have a significant influence on landscapes, water availability and wildlife movements.
More favourable rainfall conditions are forecast further north. Normal to above-normal rainfall is expected across much of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), northwestern Angola, northern Zambia, central Malawi, northern Mozambique, southern fringes of Tanzania and the Comoros.
Above-normal rainfall is particularly favoured over eastern parts of the DRC, most of Tanzania, extreme northern Malawi, extreme northern Zambia and the Seychelles.
Meanwhile, normal to below-normal rainfall is forecast for the southwestern coastal part of South Africa, southwestern Madagascar and Mauritius.
January to March 2027: Drier conditions could continue
The outlook suggests that the drier pattern could persist into the heart of Southern Africa's summer.
For January to March 2027, below-normal rainfall is expected across much of the central and southern SADC region, including large parts of Angola, Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Zambia and parts of South Africa.
Normal to below-normal rainfall is also favoured over parts of southern Mozambique, northern South Africa, Eswatini, Lesotho and Madagascar.
By contrast, wetter conditions are more likely across the northern parts of the region. Normal to above-normal rainfall is expected over the DRC, northern Zambia , northern Malawi, northern Mozambique, parts of Tanzania and the Seychelles, with above-normal rainfall particularly favoured over eastern Tanzania and the Comoros.
Madagascar could see contrasting conditions, with normal to below-normal rainfall forecast for northern and western areas and normal to above-normal rainfall favoured in southeastern parts. Mauritius is expected to experience normal to above-normal rainfall.
Above-normal temperatures also expected
The rainfall forecast is accompanied by a warning that temperatures are likely to be above normal across most of the SADC region between October 2026 and January 2027.
For travellers, this could be an important consideration. Higher temperatures can make midday game drives, hiking and city sightseeing more demanding, while prolonged dry conditions may also affect water levels, vegetation and wildlife distribution.
Central to northeastern parts of the region are the main exception, where below-normal temperatures are expected during the period.
What does the forecast mean for travellers?
It is still too early to predict conditions at individual destinations or on specific travel dates. A below-normal seasonal rainfall forecast can still include periods of heavy rain, thunderstorms or local flooding.
Nevertheless, travellers visiting Southern Africa during the 2026/27 summer season should consider the possibility of hotter and, across many areas, drier-than-usual conditions.
This may be particularly relevant when planning trips to Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Angola and South Africa between October 2026 and March 2027.
As the rainy season approaches, it will be worth checking shorter-term forecasts and destination-specific updates. Conditions can change considerably between regions, and local rainfall remains especially important for travellers heading to national parks, remote areas and destinations where road conditions or water availability may be affected.
We will continue to monitor updates to the regional climate outlook as the 2026/27 Southern African summer rainfall season develops.
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