Botswana Weather Outlook 2026/27: What travellers should know about El Niño, drought and wildfire risk

If you're planning a safari or self-drive adventure in Botswana between late 2026 and early 2027, it's worth keeping an eye on the weather.

Botswana's Department of Meteorological Services has released its 2026/27 Seasonal Rainfall Outlook, forecasting a greater than 90% chance that El Niño conditions will develop and influence the country's rainy season from October 2026 to March 2027.

While this does not mean Botswana will receive no rain, it does suggest that rainfall is more likely to be below average, less reliable and interrupted by prolonged dry spells. At the same time, above-average temperatures are expected across much of the country.

What does this mean for travellers?

For visitors, particularly those planning safaris in destinations such as the Okavango Delta, Chobe National Park, the Central Kalahari Game Reserve or the Makgadikgadi Pans, the forecast could influence travel conditions in several ways.

Possible impacts include:

• Hotter daytime temperatures, especially during the summer months.
• Longer dry periods between rainfall events.
• Increased drought stress on vegetation and water sources.
• A higher likelihood of veld and bush fires, particularly from August onwards.
• More variable weather, with isolated heavy showers still possible despite an overall drier season.

As always, weather patterns can change during the season, so travellers should remain flexible and monitor local forecasts before and during their trip.

Elevated wildfire risk

One of the biggest concerns highlighted in the seasonal outlook is the increased wildfire risk.

Botswana experienced a favourable rainy season in 2025/26, resulting in abundant grass and vegetation growth across much of the country. While this is generally good news for wildlife and ecosystems, it has also created large amounts of dry fuel that can easily ignite during hot, dry conditions.

With El Niño expected to bring warmer temperatures and extended dry spells, authorities warn that the 2026 fire season, beginning in August, could see larger and faster-moving wildfires.

Travellers visiting national parks, game reserves and remote wilderness areas should be aware that temporary road closures, restricted access or smoky conditions are possible if significant fires occur.

Should you change your travel plans?

At this stage, there is no reason to cancel or postpone a trip to Botswana.

Botswana remains one of Africa's premier safari destinations, and many visitors travel during dry years without experiencing major disruptions. In fact, drier conditions often improve wildlife viewing as animals concentrate around permanent water sources.

However, sensible preparation is recommended:

• Carry plenty of drinking water, especially on self-drive trips.
• Pack lightweight clothing, a hat and high-factor sunscreen.
• Stay informed about local weather forecasts.
• Check park conditions before entering protected areas.
• Follow any fire safety advice issued by park authorities or accommodation providers.

Bottom line

Seasonal climate outlooks are designed to help governments, businesses and travellers prepare for the months ahead. They are probability forecasts, not guarantees, meaning local conditions may differ considerably from the overall seasonal outlook.

We'll continue to monitor the situation and publish updates should significant weather developments, wildfire activity or travel advisories affect visitors to Botswana during the 2026/27 season.

 

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South Africa Weather Outlook: What travellers can expect from July to November 2026

If you're planning a trip to South Africa over the coming months, it may be worth keeping an eye on the latest seasonal weather outlook.

The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has released its climate outlook for the period from July to November 2026, pointing to generally warmer-than-normal conditions across much of the country. While seasonal forecasts cannot predict the weather for a specific day or location, they do provide a useful indication of broader climate trends that may influence travel plans.

El Niño is returning

According to SAWS, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has now entered a weak El Niño phase and is expected to strengthen rapidly over the next few months. Forecast models currently suggest that a strong El Niño could develop by early summer and persist throughout much of the 2026/27 summer season.

Although the strongest impacts are usually felt during the summer rainfall season, the developing El Niño pattern already provides an indication of what travellers can expect later this year.

Historically, strong El Niño events often bring hotter and drier conditions across much of South Africa's interior during summer, although it remains too early to accurately forecast conditions beyond spring.

Warmer weather expected across most of South Africa

For the remainder of winter and into spring, SAWS expects both daytime and overnight temperatures to remain above average across most parts of South Africa.

For travellers, this could mean pleasantly mild winter days in many destinations, although mornings and evenings in the interior—including places such as the Highveld, the Drakensberg and the Karoo—can still become quite cold.

As always during winter, layering clothing remains the best approach, especially if your itinerary includes early morning game drives or overnight stays in higher-altitude regions.

Rainfall patterns will differ by region

Rainfall expectations vary considerably depending on where you plan to travel.

The forecast suggests that South Africa's eastern coastline could receive above-average rainfall during late winter and spring. Visitors travelling to destinations such as KwaZulu-Natal and parts of the Eastern Cape should therefore be prepared for occasional wet spells alongside generally mild temperatures.

In contrast, the south-western and southern coastal regions, including the Western Cape's winter rainfall areas, are expected to experience below-average rainfall during the same period. While this could mean more opportunities for sightseeing and outdoor activities, visitors should continue to be mindful of ongoing water conservation efforts where applicable.

What this means for travellers

Overall, the seasonal outlook paints a favourable picture for travel across much of South Africa during the coming months.

Travellers can generally expect:

• Warmer-than-normal temperatures across most of the country.
• Mostly dry conditions over the Western Cape and southern coastal regions.
• An increased likelihood of rainfall along the eastern coastline during late winter and spring.
• Early indications that the coming summer may become hotter and drier if El Niño continues to strengthen.

It's worth remembering that seasonal outlooks describe broad climate patterns rather than day-to-day weather. Local forecasts issued closer to your travel dates will always provide the most accurate information for individual destinations.

SAWS will continue monitoring the evolving El Niño conditions and will issue updated seasonal outlooks as new data becomes available. Travellers planning trips to South Africa later this year or into the 2026/27 summer season should keep an eye on future updates, particularly if their itineraries include outdoor activities, wildlife safaris or self-drive holidays.

 

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South Africa Climate Update: Warmer temperatures and drier conditions expected

The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has released its seasonal climate outlook for June to October 2026, offering important insights for anyone planning winter travel across South Africa. 

South African travellers, holidaymakers and outdoor enthusiasts should keep a close eye on the developing weather pattern over the coming months. According to the latest seasonal climate outlook, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains in a neutral phase for now, but meteorologists increasingly expect conditions to shift towards El Niño during the coming weeks.

Forecast confidence has improved significantly as global climate models move beyond the period of reduced ENSO forecast reliability. Current projections indicate that El Niño conditions could strengthen throughout the second half of 2026 and persist for much of the 2026/27 summer season.

What does El Niño mean for South Africa?

Although seasonal forecasts currently extend only into the transition from winter to spring, historical El Niño events provide useful guidance. Typically, El Niño brings:

• Hotter-than-normal temperatures across much of South Africa
• Reduced summer rainfall over large parts of the country
• Increased risk of drought conditions in some regions
• More challenging conditions for agriculture and water resources

For travellers, this could mean excellent opportunities for outdoor activities, wildlife viewing and road trips, but potentially drier landscapes in some areas during the peak summer months.

Winter rainfall outlook

South Africa's winter rainfall is largely concentrated along the country's south-western, southern and eastern coastal regions.

Current forecasts suggest:

Eastern coastal areas
The eastern coastline, including parts of KwaZulu-Natal and the Eastern Cape, is expected to receive above-normal rainfall during winter and early spring. Travellers visiting these regions should be prepared for occasional wet weather, particularly along the coast.

South-Western and Southern Cape
The outlook is less favourable for the traditional winter rainfall regions of the Western Cape and southern coastal areas. These regions are expected to experience below-normal rainfall during late winter and early spring.

For visitors planning trips to Cape Town, the Garden Route and surrounding areas, this could result in fewer rainy days than typically expected during the winter season.

Warmer winter temperatures expected

Both minimum and maximum temperatures are forecast to remain above average across most of South Africa throughout winter.

This is good news for travellers exploring destinations such as:

• Kruger National Park
• The Garden Route
• Cape Town and the Cape Winelands
• The Drakensberg
• KwaZulu-Natal's coastline

While winter mornings may still be chilly, many regions could experience warmer-than-usual daytime conditions, creating favourable conditions for sightseeing, hiking and wildlife viewing.

What travellers should expect

Although El Niño's full impact on the upcoming summer season remains uncertain, the emerging trend points towards a warmer and potentially drier South African summer.

Travellers planning holidays between November 2026 and March 2027 should monitor updated seasonal forecasts, particularly if visiting water-dependent destinations or regions that are sensitive to drought conditions.

For now, the South African Weather Service (SAWS) will continue to monitor developments and provide updated guidance as confidence in the summer outlook increases.

As always, weather patterns can evolve rapidly, and travellers are advised to check the latest forecasts before departure, especially when planning outdoor adventures, national park visits or coastal holidays.

 

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