Travellers planning a trip to South Africa between September 2026 and January 2027 may want to keep an eye on the weather. The latest seasonal outlook from the South African Weather Service (SAWS) points towards a hotter-than-normal summer, with an increasingly strong El Niño raising the likelihood of drier conditions across large parts of the country.
El Niño is currently strengthening and is forecast to potentially reach a very strong state during the coming months, with conditions expected to persist through at least the end of the 2026/27 summer season. For South Africa, this typically increases the risk of warmer and drier weather.
The outlook is not uniformly dry, however. During spring, favourable rainfall is still possible along parts of the eastern coast and eastern interior. As the country moves into early summer, below-normal rainfall becomes more likely across significant areas, particularly the central interior and far north-east.
There are currently also indications of potentially wetter-than-normal conditions in some eastern parts of South Africa during early summer. SAWS cautions, however, that this part of the forecast remains uncertain as the El Niño event continues to develop.
What could this mean for travellers?
For visitors, the most noticeable impact may simply be the heat. Both minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to be above normal across much of South Africa during spring and early summer.
This could make daytime sightseeing, hiking and other outdoor activities more demanding, especially in inland destinations. Travellers heading to national parks and game reserves should also be prepared for potentially changing conditions if below-normal rainfall becomes established.
A drier summer can affect landscapes, water levels and vegetation, while hot conditions may influence the timing of wildlife activity. For safari travellers, early mornings and late afternoons could become even more important for game viewing.
It is still a seasonal outlook rather than a day-to-day forecast, and conditions can vary considerably between regions. Travellers should therefore not assume that the entire country will experience the same weather. Those visiting South Africa over the coming months would be wise to check updated forecasts closer to departure.
For now, the key message is clear: South Africa's 2026/27 summer could become significantly hotter and drier as El Niño strengthens, although regional rainfall patterns may still change as the season develops.
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