South Africa is likely to experience a hotter and drier than normal summer in 2026/27, with below-average rainfall expected across much of the country's north-eastern half. The South African Weather Service (SAWS) forecasts above-normal temperatures and an increased likelihood of below-normal rainfall between October 2026 and February 2027, as a strong El Niño continues to develop.
The seasonal climate outlook, issued on 30 September 2026, indicates that these conditions could affect travel across parts of South Africa, particularly in regions already experiencing water shortages. However, the forecast represents probabilities rather than certainty, and actual weather conditions may vary between regions and throughout the season.
What travellers can expect
The SAWS expects warmer-than-normal minimum and maximum temperatures across most of South Africa during spring and early summer. Below-normal rainfall is more likely across much of the north-eastern half of the country, particularly during late spring and early to mid-summer.
For travellers planning a summer holiday, this could mean hotter conditions, limited water availability in some destinations and an increased risk of veld fires. The outlook is particularly relevant for visitors planning self-drive trips, camping holidays and safaris in South Africa's summer rainfall regions.
The forecast does not mean that the entire country will experience a drought or that rainfall will be absent. Rather, it indicates an increased likelihood of drier conditions than usual in the affected areas.
El Niño and its impact on South Africa
The outlook is consistent with the expected effects of El Niño in Southern Africa. According to the SAWS, the current strong El Niño is expected to intensify towards a very strong phase over the next couple of months and potentially persist until the end of the 2026/27 summer season.
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that can influence rainfall and temperatures in different parts of the world. In Southern Africa, it is typically associated with warmer and drier conditions, increasing the risk of drought, water shortages and veld fires.
The SAWS warns that below-normal rainfall combined with above-normal temperatures could place additional pressure on water resources, particularly in water-scarce areas of the central interior and north-eastern parts of South Africa.
Travellers visiting South Africa during the 2026/27 summer should keep the seasonal outlook in mind when planning their trips, especially when travelling to areas that depend on limited water resources.
- Safari holidays: Hotter and drier conditions could increase the risk of veld fires and affect vegetation and water availability in some wildlife areas. Actual conditions will depend on local rainfall and temperatures.
- Self-drive trips: Travellers should check local weather forecasts, road conditions and any fire-related restrictions before setting out, particularly when visiting remote areas.
- Camping and outdoor activities: Above-normal temperatures increase the risk of heat stress and dehydration. Carry sufficient drinking water, avoid prolonged exposure to extreme heat and plan outdoor activities around the cooler parts of the day.
- Water availability: Destinations already experiencing water supply challenges may face additional pressure if below-normal rainfall materialises. Travellers staying at campsites, lodges and other accommodation in affected areas should be prepared for possible water-use restrictions.
Although the outlook points towards hotter and drier conditions, it does not predict the timing or severity of individual heatwaves, droughts or fire events. Travellers should therefore continue to monitor local weather forecasts and any travel advisories issued during the summer season.
Keep an eye on updated forecasts
The SAWS will continue to monitor climate conditions and update its seasonal outlook as new information becomes available. Seasonal forecasts become less certain the further ahead they look, making it important for travellers to check the latest information closer to their departure dates.
The October 2026 to February 2027 outlook is a useful indication of the conditions that may develop across South Africa, but it should not be treated as a day-to-day weather forecast. For the latest information, travellers can consult the South African Weather Service's seasonal forecasts and its short-term weather warnings.
Source: South African Weather Service, Seasonal Climate Watch: October 2026 to February 2027, issued 30 September 2026.
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