Southern Africa's 2026/27 Rainy Season: Drier and Hotter Conditions Expected Across Much of the Region

Travellers planning a trip to Southern Africa during the 2026/27 rainy season from October 2026 to March 2027 may want to keep an eye on the latest regional climate outlook. The consensus forecast from the Thirty-Third Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF-33) points to a generally drier-than-normal start to the season across much of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region, followed by below-normal rainfall across large parts of central and southern Southern Africa early in 2027.

The outlook does not mean that it will not rain. Seasonal forecasts describe the likelihood of rainfall patterns over several months rather than predicting the weather on a particular day. For travellers, however, the forecast provides an early indication of what conditions could look like when planning safaris, self-drive holidays and other outdoor trips.

October to December 2026: A potentially dry start across much of Southern Africa

For the first part of the 2026/27 rainfall season, below-normal rainfall is favoured across the bulk of the SADC region.

This could be particularly relevant for travellers visiting traditionally dry areas such as Namibia, Botswana and parts of South Africa, where the first summer rains can have a significant influence on landscapes, water availability and wildlife movements.

More favourable rainfall conditions are forecast further north. Normal to above-normal rainfall is expected across much of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), northwestern Angola, northern Zambia, central Malawi, northern Mozambique, southern fringes of Tanzania and the Comoros.

Above-normal rainfall is particularly favoured over eastern parts of the DRC, most of Tanzania, extreme northern Malawi, extreme northern Zambia and the Seychelles.

Meanwhile, normal to below-normal rainfall is forecast for the southwestern coastal part of South Africa, southwestern Madagascar and Mauritius.

January to March 2027: Drier conditions could continue

The outlook suggests that the drier pattern could persist into the heart of Southern Africa's summer.

For January to March 2027, below-normal rainfall is expected across much of the central and southern SADC region, including large parts of Angola, Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Zambia and parts of South Africa.

Normal to below-normal rainfall is also favoured over parts of southern Mozambique, northern South Africa, Eswatini, Lesotho and Madagascar.

By contrast, wetter conditions are more likely across the northern parts of the region. Normal to above-normal rainfall is expected over the DRC, northern Zambia , northern Malawi, northern Mozambique, parts of Tanzania and the Seychelles, with above-normal rainfall particularly favoured over eastern Tanzania and the Comoros.

Madagascar could see contrasting conditions, with normal to below-normal rainfall forecast for northern and western areas and normal to above-normal rainfall favoured in southeastern parts. Mauritius is expected to experience normal to above-normal rainfall.

Above-normal temperatures also expected

The rainfall forecast is accompanied by a warning that temperatures are likely to be above normal across most of the SADC region between October 2026 and January 2027.

For travellers, this could be an important consideration. Higher temperatures can make midday game drives, hiking and city sightseeing more demanding, while prolonged dry conditions may also affect water levels, vegetation and wildlife distribution.

Central to northeastern parts of the region are the main exception, where below-normal temperatures are expected during the period.

What does the forecast mean for travellers?

It is still too early to predict conditions at individual destinations or on specific travel dates. A below-normal seasonal rainfall forecast can still include periods of heavy rain, thunderstorms or local flooding.

Nevertheless, travellers visiting Southern Africa during the 2026/27 summer season should consider the possibility of hotter and, across many areas, drier-than-usual conditions.

This may be particularly relevant when planning trips to Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Angola and South Africa between October 2026 and March 2027.

As the rainy season approaches, it will be worth checking shorter-term forecasts and destination-specific updates. Conditions can change considerably between regions, and local rainfall remains especially important for travellers heading to national parks, remote areas and destinations where road conditions or water availability may be affected.

We will continue to monitor updates to the regional climate outlook as the 2026/27 Southern African summer rainfall season develops.

 

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Botswana rainfall & temperature outlook (January – April 2026): What travellers need to know!

The Botswana Ministry of Environment and Tourism, through the Department of Meteorological Services (DMS), has released its official seasonal rainfall and temperature outlook for January to April 2026. The forecast indicates that most of Botswana is likely to experience normal to above-average rainfall, while temperatures are expected to remain close to seasonal norms across the country.

According to the DMS, normal rainfall totals for the January–April period typically range from approximately 100mm in the Kgalagadi District to around 340mm in the Chobe District, reflecting the country’s strong regional climate variation. These rainfall levels play a critical role in replenishing water sources, supporting agriculture, and shaping wildlife movements during the peak wet season.

In terms of temperatures, normal maximum daytime temperatures during this period generally range from about 30°C in south-eastern Botswana to around 34°C in the Kgalagadi region, aligning with long-term climatic averages.

From a climate systems perspective, a weak La Niña event is currently present, with conditions expected to transition to ENSO-neutral between January and March 2026. This shift supports an enhanced probability of continued normal to above-normal rainfall, while near-normal temperatures are expected to prevail nationwide.

What the Forecast Means for Safari and Self-Drive Travellers

For travellers planning safaris, overland trips, or self-drive holidays in Botswana during early 2026, the forecast presents both opportunities and practical considerations.

Wildlife viewing and landscapes
Above-average rainfall typically results in lush vegetation, full waterholes, and vibrant landscapes, particularly in northern Botswana. Areas such as Chobe National Park, Moremi Game Reserve, Savuti, and the Okavango Delta benefit from increased surface water, supporting healthy wildlife populations and excellent photographic conditions. Birdlife is also at its peak during this period.

Road conditions and accessibility
While the rainy season enhances the natural environment, it can also impact road conditions, especially in remote and low-lying areas. Flooded tracks, muddy sand roads, and temporary closures are common in parts of the Kgalagadi, Savuti, and Okavango regions. Self-drive travellers in Botswana are strongly advised to use high-clearance 4x4 vehicles and to confirm current road conditions with lodges, park authorities, or local operators before travelling.

Temperatures and comfort
With near-normal temperatures ranging between 30°C and 34°C, conditions will be warm and humid following rainfall, which is typical for Botswana's wet season. Afternoon thunderstorms may bring short-lived relief from the heat.

Travel planning advice
Travellers should plan flexible itineraries, allow extra travel time between destinations, and monitor local weather updates throughout their trip. Comprehensive travel insurance that covers weather-related disruptions is recommended, particularly for self-drive and remote-area travel.

Overall, the January to April 2026 outlook suggests favourable conditions for nature-based travel in Botswana, with thriving ecosystems and rewarding wildlife experiences. However, visitors should remain mindful of seasonal weather impacts and plan accordingly to ensure a safe and enjoyable journey through Botswana.

Botswana seasonal weather outlook 2025/26: Wet and green safari season forecast!

The Botswana Ministry of Environment and Tourism, through the Department of Meteorological Services (DMS), has released its seasonal rainfall and temperature outlook for October 2025 to March 2026. Travellers, safari operators, and farmers can expect a slow start to the rains in the north and west, followed by above-average rainfall across much of the country as the season progresses – great news for Botswana’s iconic wildlife areas.

Key highlights of the 2025/26 seasonal outlook:

October – December 2025:

• North & West (Chobe, Ngamiland, Ghanzi): Normal to below-normal rainfall at the start of the season.
• East & South (North-east, Kgatleng, South-east, Kweneng, Southern, Kgalagadi): Normal to above-normal rainfall, improving as the season moves into December.
• Temperatures: Near normal countrywide (31°C in the southeast to 34°C in the north).

November 2025 – January 2026:

• Nationwide: Largely normal rainfall with a tendency to above-normal levels.
• Temperatures: Expected to remain near normal.

December 2025 – February 2026:

• Chobe, Ngamiland, Ghanzi, Central, Kgalagadi, Kweneng, Southern: Normal to above-normal rainfall.
• North-east, South-central, Kgatleng, South-east: Above-normal rainfall.
• Temperatures: Near normal, ranging from 30°C in the north to 34°C in the southwest.

January – March 2026:

• Chobe, Ngamiland, Ghanzi, Central, Kgalagadi: Normal to above-normal rainfall.
• Eastern Botswana (North-east, Kgatleng, South-central, Kweneng, Southern, South-east): Above-normal rainfall, suggesting a lush late season.
• Temperatures: Near normal across the country.

Climate drivers:

The outlook highlights a weak La Niña event expected to emerge between October and November 2025, with a 56% likelihood of persisting through early summer (Nov–Jan). La Niña events often bring wetter conditions to Botswana, boosting game-viewing experiences as wildlife congregates around water sources later in the season.

What this means for travel & tourism:

Visitors planning safaris in Botswana’s top destinations – Okavango Delta, Chobe National Park, Makgadikgadi Pans, and the Kalahari – should prepare for:

• Greener landscapes and excellent photographic opportunities later in the season.
• Possible road access challenges in remote areas due to heavy rains from December onward – 4x4 travel is recommended.
• Near-normal temperatures – expect hot but not extreme summer conditions.

Summary:

• Slow start to rains in the north and west of Botswana, wetter as the season continues.
• Above-normal rainfall likely in the east and south from December onward.
• Near-normal temperatures expected nationwide.
• Overall outlook: A relatively wet and lush summer season – ideal for wildlife lovers and photographers.

This forecast is good news for Botswana’s ecosystems and safari enthusiasts, as abundant rains help replenish pans, rivers, and grazing lands across the country.

 

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