Southern Africa: Consensus outlook for the February to June 2024 rainfall season!

The Southern African Development Communtiy (SADC)* has released the official statement from the Twenty-Eighth Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF-28), which took place in Maputo (Mozambique) from 29 to 31 January 2024 to present a consensus outlook for the February to June 2024 rainfall season over the SADC region. This period is covering the transition from summer wet season to winter dry season over most of the region, “long rains" season in regions characterised by bi-modal rainfall (northern part of Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and eastern part of Tanzania) and transition from summer dry season to winter wet season in the south-western tip of Africa. According to the outlook, most member states in the northern half and the southeastern parts of the SADC region are likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall for most of the period from February to June 2024, except for central parts of the region and south-western parts where normal to below-normal and below-normal rainfall are expected. Above normal rainfall is expected over the north-eastern parts of the SADC region during the March 2024 to May 2024 period. The north-western and south-eastern parts of the region are expected to receive normal to below-normal rainfall during the April 2024 to June 2024 rainfall season. During this period, the central parts of the SADC region are expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall. Below normal rainfall conditions are expected to persist over the western regions of the SADC region, mostly in Botswana, Namibia, southern Angola and south-western South Africa throughout the forecast period.

February - April 2024

• Northern half of Angola, DRC, northern Zambia, northern Malawi, Tanzaniaand northern Mozambique
• Normal rainfall with increased chances of above-normal rainfall
• Southern half of Angola, northern fringes of Namibia, north-eastern Botswana, southern Zambia, Zimbabwe, southern Malawi, and most of Mozambique
• Normal rainfall with increased chances of below-normal rainfall (High Confidence)
• Most of central Namibia and most of western Botswana and northwestern fringes of South Africa
• Increased chances of below normal rainfall (High Confidence)
• Southern fringes of Botswana, extreme southern parts of Zimbabwe, most of South Africa, Lesotho, Eswatini and southern fringes of Mozambique
• Normal rainfall with increased chances of above-normal rainfall (High Confidence)
• Southern Namibia and south-western South Africa
• Normal rainfall with increased chances of below-normal rainfall
• Comoros
• Normal rainfall with increased chances of above-normal rainfall
• North and central Madagascar
• Normal rainfall with increased chances of above-normal rainfall
• Southern Madagascar
• Normal rainfall with increased chances of below-normal rainfall (High Confidence)
• Mauritius
• Normal rainfall with increased chances above-normal rainfall
• Seychelles
• Normal rainfall with increased chances of below-normal rainfall

March to May 2024

• Western half of DRC and northern half of Angola
• Normal rainfall with increased chances of above-normal rainfall
• Eastern half of DRC, western half of Tanzania, northern Zambia, and north-eastern fringes of Angola
• Increased chances of above normal rainfall (High Confidence)
• Eastern Tanzania, eastern Malawi, and northern Mozambique
• Normal rainfall with increased chances of above-normal rainfall
• Most of southern half of Angola, northern Namibia, central and southern parts of Zambia, south-eastern fringes of DRC, south-western Malawi, northern Botswana, the bulk of Zimbabwe, extreme north-eastern fringes of South Africa and central and southern parts of Mozambique
• Normal rainfall with increased chances of below-normal rainfall
• Central and southern parts of Namibia, western Botswana, and western South Africa
• Increased chances of below normal rainfall
• Southern fringes of Botswana, extreme southern tip of Zimbabwe, most of South Africa, Lesotho, Eswatini, and southern fringes of Mozambique
• Normal rainfall with increased chances of above-normal rainfall (High Confidence)
• Comoros
• Normal rainfall with increased chances of above-normal rainfall
• Madagascar
• Normal rainfall with increased chances of above-normal rainfall (High Confidence)
• Mauritius
• Normal rainfall with increased chances of above-normal rainfall
• Seychelles
• Normal rainfall with increased chances of above-normal rainfall

April to June 2024

• North-western tip of Namibia, most of Angola, DRC, northern tip of Zambia and western tip of Tanzania
• Normal rainfall with increased chances of below-normal rainfall (High Confidence)
• Southern tip of Angola, most of Namibia, western fringes of Botswana and western parts of South Africa
• Increased chances of below normal rainfall
• South-eastern Angola, southern tip of DRC, extreme north-eastern part of Namibia extreme western tip of Zimbabwe, most of Botswana, most of Zambia, northern Malawi, most of Tanzania, most of South Africa, Lesotho, most of Eswatini, northern and southern tips of Mozambique
• Normal rainfall with increased chances of above-normal rainfall (High Confidence)
• Northern Eswatini, north-eastern South Africa, eastern part of Botswana, most of Zimbabwe, southern fringes of Zambia, southern Malawi, most of Mozambique
• Normal rainfall with increased chances of below-normal rainfall
• Comoros
• Normal rainfall with increased chances of above-normal rainfall
• Madagascar
• Normal rainfall with increased chances of below-normal rainfall (High Confidence)
• Mauritius
• Normal rainfall with increased chances of above-normal rainfall
• Seychelles
• Normal rainfall with increased chances of above-normal rainfall

* Angola, Botswana, Comoros, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Seychelles, South Africa, Eswatini (Swaziland), Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe