07 February 2024

South Africa: Seasonal rainfall & temperature outlook (February 2024 - May 2024)!

The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has released the Seasonal Climate Watch for the period February 2024 to May 2024. According to the seasonal outlook, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a strong El Niño state. This El Niño event is predicted to persist through the 2023/2024 summer (October to March), whereafter it is predicted to weaken with ENSO neutral conditions by the coming winter. ENSO usually provides Southern Africa with generally drier and warmer conditions during the summer seasons. However, current forecasts from various seasonal prediction producers indicate enhanced chances for below-normal rainfall over most areas of the western part of South Africa, while the outlook for rainfall over the eastern parts has lower probabilities assigned to the relevant rainfall category (below-normal or above-normal) with some areas characterised by no clear signal.
SAWS's multi-model rainfall forecast indicates mostly below-normal rainfall over most of South Africa between February and June 2024, except for some central parts of the country betwween March, April and May where enhanced probabilities for above-normal rainfall is predicted. SAWS points out that, given the relatively low probabilities of the predicted rainfall category over the eastern parts of South Africa, caution is advised when using the seasonal forecast for any planning purposes.
Minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to be mostly above-normal in South Africa for the forecast period (February 2024 to May 2024).

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