The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has released its latest Seasonal Climate Watch, covering the period September 2025 to January 2026. According to SAWS, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a neutral phase, but climate models suggest that South Africa may transition into a weak La Niña event during the upcoming summer. While it is still too early to make precise forecasts about ENSO’s full impact, more reliable predictions are expected in the coming months as models improve.
Rainfall outlook
The North-Eastern regions of South Africa - including Limpopo, Mpumalanga, Gauteng, and parts of KwaZulu-Natal - are likely to see above-normal rainfall during spring and early summer. This could be welcome news for farmers, nature lovers, and travellers planning safaris, as wetter conditions typically bring lush green landscapes and excellent wildlife sightings.
Although some uncertainty remains, a continued trend toward La Niña would significantly strengthen confidence in above-average summer rainfall.
Temperature outlook
Both minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to be above-normal across most of South Africa during spring. Travellers can expect warm days, which are ideal for outdoor adventures - but should also prepare for possible afternoon thunderstorms in summer-rainfall regions.
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