Planning a trip to Southern Africa in late 2025 or early 2026? The latest statement from the Thirty-First Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF-31) offers valuable insights for travellers, tour operators, and safari planners. The forum’s seasonal forecast highlights expected rainfall and temperature patterns across the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region – crucial information for those heading on safari, road trips, or island getaways.
The Southern African Development Community (SADC) is a regional organization of 16 member states that promotes economic growth, sustainable development, and regional integration. Its members include Angola, Botswana, Comoros, Democratic Republic of Congo, Eswatini, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Seychelles, South Africa, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. Covering diverse landscapes from deserts and savannas to tropical islands, the SADC region is one of the world’s top travel destinations, offering everything from big-five safaris and cultural tourism to pristine beaches and adventure travel.
October – December 2025: Mostly wet, with some exceptions
The bulk of the SADC region is likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall during the first part of the rainy season (October–December 2025). This is generally good news for safari enthusiasts, as it means lush landscapes, dramatic skies, and excellent photographic opportunities.
Exceptions to watch:
- Western Namibia – Below-normal rainfall is forecasted, which may result in drier conditions in areas like the Skeleton Coast and Kaokoland.
- Comoros, Madagascar, Mauritius & Seychelles – Expected to receive normal to below-normal rainfall, so travelers can expect a mix of dry and rainy days.
January – March 2026: Wetter conditions expected
For early 2026, SARCOF-31 predicts normal to above-normal rainfall across much of Southern Africa – a boost for wildlife and water reserves.
Regional highlights:
- Southwestern SADC (Namibia, Botswana, parts of South Africa): Above-normal rainfall is forecasted – good for game viewing near waterholes but expect muddy roads in remote safari areas.
- Angola, DR Congo & Tanzania: Normal to below-normal rainfall could mean a slightly drier season.
- Indian Ocean Islands: Madagascar, Mauritius, and Seychelles are expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall, while Comoros may be drier.
Temperature Outlook: Warmer season ahead
SARCOF-31 expects temperatures to stay above long-term averages across most of Southern Africa (except for some central regions). This means warm days and balmy nights – perfect for summer holidays but important to consider when packing light, breathable clothing and staying hydrated.
Key Climate Drivers: La Niña & Indian Ocean Dipole
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is projected to enter a weak La Niña phase during this season, typically linked to wetter conditions in much of Southern Africa. Additionally, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is expected to shift into a negative phase before returning to neutral, which can also enhance rainfall over the region.
The SARCOF-31 forecast is an excellent planning tool for travellers looking to make the most of Southern Africa’s natural beauty. Whether you’re heading for a safari in Botswana, a road trip through Namibia, or a beach holiday in Mauritius, staying informed about seasonal patterns ensures a safer and more enjoyable journey.
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