The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has released the Seasonal Climate Watch for the period January 2024 to April 2024. According to the seasonal outlook, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a strong El Niño state. This El Niño event is predicted to persist through the 2023/2024 summer (October to March), whereafter it is predicted to weaken with ENSO neutral conditions by the coming winter.
ENSO usually provides Soutern Africa with generally drier and warmer conditions during the summer seasons. However, current global forecasts indicate some uncertainty for the typical drier conditions that South Africa experiences during typical El Niño seasons, in particular over the eastern parts of the country.
SAWS' multi-model rainfall forecast indicates mostly below-normal rainfall over most of South Africa between January 2024 and May 2024 with the exception of the central and eastern coastal areas indicating higher likelihood of above-normal rainfall. SAWS points out that there remains uncertainty on the exact outcome of rainfall over the summer rainfall areas. Minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to be mostly above-normal in South Africa for the forecast period (January 2024 - April 2024).
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