The Southern African Development Communtiy (SADC)* has released the official statement from the Twenty-Ninth Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF-29), which took place in Harare, Zimbabwe, from 26 - 28 August 2024 to present a consensus outlook for the major rainfall season from October 2024 to March 2025.
According to the statement, the bulk of the SADC region, including Mauritius and central Madagascar, is likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall for most of the period of October to December 2024. The north-western part of the Republic of Congo (DRC) will experience where above-normal rainfall, while the remainder of the region, including the island states of Comoros and Seychelles, is likely to normal to below normal rainfall during this period of the 2024/25 season.
The period January to March 2025 is expected to have normal to above normal rainfall for most of the region. However, the south-western fringes of South Africa, south-eastern and western most of the Republic of Congo (DRC), north-western Angola, Tanzania, northern Zambia, northern Malawi, northern Mozambique and central western tip of Madagascar, as well as the Comoros and the Seychelles, are expected to experience normal to below-normal rains. Northern Madagascar is likely to receive above normal rainfall during this period of the 2023/24 rainfall season.
The temperature outlook covering the period from October 2024 to January 2025 indicates a highly likelihood for above normal temperatures in most parts of the whole SADC region.
Rainfall forecast for October to December 2024:
- Northern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)
- Increased chances of above-normal rainfall
- Central DRC, northern fringes of Zambia, eastern most Malawi, Tanzania, most of Mozambique and Zimbabwe
- Increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall
- Southern DRC, Angola, most of Namibia, Zambia, Botswana, western fringes of Zimbabwe, north-eastern South Africa, southern Mozambique and eSwatini
- Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
- Southern Namibia, southern Botswana, most of South Africa and Lesotho
- Increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall
- Southern Madagascar
- Increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall
- Central Madagascar
- Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
- Northern Madagascar
- Increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall
- Mauritius
- Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
- Seychelles
- Increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall
- Comoros
- Increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall
Rainfall forecast for November 2024 to January 2025:
- Western DRC and north-western Angola
- Increased chances of above-normal rainfall
- Central and southern Angola, eastern most DRC, North-western Tanzania, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Botswana, most of Namibia western Malawi, central to southern Mozambique, eSwatini and north-eastern South Africa
- Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
- Central to south-western Angola, western coastal Namibia, most of central South Africa and Lesotho
- Increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall
- Bulk of Tanzania, eastern Malawi and northern Mozambique
- Increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall
- Southern Madagascar
- Increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall
- Northern Madagascar
- Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
- Mauritius
- Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
- Seychelles
- Increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall
- Comoros
- Increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall
Rainfall forecast for December 2024 to February 2025:
- Northern fringes of Tanzania
- Increased chances of below-normal rainfall
- Northern DRC
- Increased chances of below-normal rainfall
- Most of Tanzania, north-eastern Mozambique, northern tip of Malawi, southern most DRC and Angola
- Increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall
- South-eastern Angola, most of Namibia, Botswana, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Malawi, most of South Africa, Lesotho, eSwatini, and most of Mozambique
- Increased chances of normal to above normal rainfall
- South-western Namibia and south-western South Africa
- Increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall
- Southernmost Madagascar
- Increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall
- Most of Madagascar
- Increased chances of normal to above-normal
- Mauritius
- Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
- Seychelles
- Increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall
- Comoros
- Increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall
Rainfall forecast for January to March 2025:
- Western DRC and north western Angola
- Increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall
- Eastern DRC, southern Angola, most of Zambia, Malawi, Zimbabwe, Botswana, Namibia, most of South Africa, Lesotho, Eswatini and most of Mozambique
- Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
- South-western South Africa
- Increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall
- Tanzania, eastern fringes of DRC, northern fringes of Zambia, northern Malawi and northern Mozambique
- Increased chances of normal to below normal rainfall
- Southernmost Madagascar
- Increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall
- Central Madagascar
- Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
- Northern Madagascar
- Increased chances of above-normal rainfall
- Mauritius
- Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
- Seychelles
- Increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall
- Comoros
- Increased chances of normal to below-normal raifall
No comments:
Post a Comment