The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has released the Seasonal Climate Watch for the period September 2023 to January 2024. According to the seasonal outlook, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in an El Niño state and will persist through most of the summer months. ENSO’s typical impact on Southern Africa is in favour for generally drier and warmer conditions during the summer seasons from October to March. Current global forecasts indicate a great deal of uncertainty for the typical drier conditions that South Africa experiences during an El Niño.
SAWS' multi-model rainfall forecast indicates above-normal rainfall for most South Africa during mid-spring (Sepember 2023 to November 2023) and late-spring (October 2023 - December 2023). During early-summer (November 2023 to January 2024) below-normal rainfall is expected over the central parts of South Africa and above-normal rainfall for the north-east.
Minimum and maximum temperatures in South Africa are expected to be mostly above-normal countrywide for the forecast period (September 2023 to January 2024).