The Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services (DCCMS) in the Malawian Ministry of Natural Ressources and Climate Change has released the 2023/24 seasonal climate outlook (pdf) for Malawi. October to April marks the main rainfall season in the country. Historically, the main rains in Malawi commence from November, starting from the south and gradually spreading northwards. Pre-season rains often precede the main season.
According to the seasonal forecast by the DCCMS, Malawi will experience normal total rainfall amounts over most areas of the country from October 2023 to December 2023. However, there is a high likelihood of below-normal rainfall in November 2023, particularly in southern and northern Malawi. Planting rains or the onset of the rainy season may be delayed by at least two weeks in some areas.
From January 2024 to March 2024, most areas of Malawi will experience normal to below-normal total rainfall amounts, with the possibility of above-normal rainfall in January 2024. There is also a high chance of prolonged dry spells in the month of February 2024.
During October 2023, Malawi is generally expected to experience a normal range of maximum temperatures. However, some areas in the northern region are forecasted to be warmer than normal. Conversely, lower than normal maximum temperatures are likely in certain parts of Nsanje. The forecast maximum temperatures are generally ranging from 30 to 38 degrees Celsius, except parts of Rumphi, Nkhatabay where the temperatures are below 28 degrees Celsius.
In November 2023, normal temperatures are expected across Malawi, while the southern highlands are likely to be warmer than normal during this period. The Shire Valley is expected to experience maximum temperatures exceeding 36 degrees Celsius while the rest of the country will be in the range between 28 to 34 degrees Celsius.
The forecasted maximum temperature in December 2023 is likely to be below-average over many parts of northern and central regions of Malawi. Otherwise, it will be normal elsewhere including the southern parts of the country. The mean maximum temperature will range from 24 to 28 degrees Celsius over many areas in Central and Northern areas, while remaining above 30 degrees Celsius over southern areas.
In January 2024, most areas in Malawi are expected to experience normal maximum temperatures, with the mean maximum temperatures ranging from 24 to 34 degrees Celsius.
February 2024 mean maximum temperatures are likely to be normal except southern Malawi that may experience warmer than normal conditions. The mean maximum temperatures are expected to range from 24 to 34 degrees Celsius.
The better of Malawi will be warmer than normal in March 2024, with many areas expected to observe average maximum temperatures in the range of 30-34 degrees Celsius, except parts of Mzimba, Chitipa, Bolero and Nkhatabay where the temperature will be less than 28 degrees Celsius. However, the northern part of Malawi is expected to have normal maximum temperatures during this period.
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