03 June 2024

South Africa: Seasonal rainfall & temperature outlook (June 2024 - October 2024)!

The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has released the Seasonal Climate Watch for the period June 2024 to October 2024. According to the seasonal outlook, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently still in a El Niño state, but weakening and predicted to rapidly decline into a neutral state by mid to end winter. As the summer has ended, SAWS expects minimal influence from the current El Niño event that is still in effect.
South Africa is now at the start of the winter season, and as such weather systems occurring during this season are notoriously difficult to predict at a seasonal timescale. These systems typical have the largest impact along the southern to southeastern coastal areas.
The SAWS multi-model rainfall forecast indicates mostly below-normal rainfall over most of South Africa during June and October 2024. Minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to be mostly above-normal countrywide for the forecast period (June 2024 to October 2024).

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