15 May 2023

South Africa: Seasonal rainfall & temperature outlook (May - September 2023)!

The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has released the Seasonal Climate Watch for the period May 2023 to September 2023. According to the seasonal outlook, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a neutral state. Forecasts indicate that it will likely remain in a neutral state during winter, with predictions indicating a higher probability to switch to an El Niño state during late-spring (July - September). However, the impact of ENSO is limited for the coming seasons until the next summer season which may be impacted by an l Niño state if early predictions are correct.

The multi-model rainfall forecast indicates above-normal rainfall for most of South Africa during early winter. Of importance for the next two seasons, mid-winter (June -August) and late-winter (July - September), there is below-normal rainfall expected for the south-western part of the country and above-normal rainfall for the southern coastal areas of South Africa. As most of the rainfall during winter is expected in South Africa's far south-west, the below-normal rainfall conditions in those areas are expected to have a significant impact.
Minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to be mostly above-normal in the whole of South Africa for the forecast period (May 2023 to September 2023).

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