The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has released the Seasonal Climate Watch for the period April 2023 to August 2023. According to the seasonal outlook, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a La Niña state, and forecasts indicate that it will likely return to a neutral state by autumn (March to May 2023). ENSO’s impact is limited for the coming seasons until the next summer season which may be impacted by an El Nino state if early predictions are correct.
The multi-model rainfall forecast indicates above-normal rainfall for the north-east of South Africa and below-normal rainfall for the south-west of the country during all predicted seasons. As most of the rainfall during winter is expected in the far south-west of South Africa, the below-normal rainfall conditions in those areas are expected to have a significant impact. Minimum and maximum temperatures in South Africa are expected to be mostly above-normal countrywide for the forecast period.
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