The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has released the Seasonal Climate Watch for the period March 2023 to July 2023. According to the seasonal outlook, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a La Niña state, and forecasts indicate that it will likely return to a neutral state by autumn (March to May 2023). As ENSO remains in a La Niña state, early autumn rainfall remains likely to receive above-normal rainfall over South Africa's summer rainfall areas. However, as summer comes to an end so does the typical impact of ENSO and it is to be monitored for the next summer season.
The multi-model rainfall forecast indicates above-normal rainfall for most parts of South Africa except for the south-western parts during late-autumn (April to June 2023) and early-winter (May to July 2023) which is expected to receive below-normal rainfall. Minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to be mostly above-normal countrywide for the forecast period.
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