Southern Africa: Rain season (October 2015 - March 2016) outlook

The Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum has isuued the annual outlook for the 2015/2016 rainfall season (October - March) in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region. The period, October to March, is the main rainfall season over most of southern Africa.  Owing to the differences and evolution patterns in the predominant rainfall-bearing systems, the rainy season over the region has been subdivided into four overlapping three-month periods. The countries covered by the outlook include all SADC member states (Angola, Botswana, Democratic Republic of Congo, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Seychelles, South Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe).

October - December 2015

• Northern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)
  > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• Northern Tanzania
  > Increased chances of above-normal to normal rainfall
• Northern  Mozambique,  southern  Tanzania,  northern  Malawi, northernmost Zambia, bulk of DRC and north-western half of Angola
  > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• Central Mozambique, southern Malawi, northern half of Zimbabwe, most of Zambia, southernmost  DRC, south-eastern half of Angola, bulk of Namibia, western half of Botswana, most of central and western parts of South Africa, western parts of Lesotho
  > Increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall
• Extreme south-western Zambia, Caprivi area, south-easternmost Angola, south-western half of Zimbabwe, eastern half of Botswana, most of northern South Africa, Swaziland and southern Mozambique
  > Increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall
• South-westernmost Angola and western coastal areas of Namibia and South Africa
  > Increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall
• Western Madagascar
  > Increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall
• Eastern Madagascar
  > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• Southern Madagascar
  > Increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall
• Mauritius
  > Increased chances of normal to above -normal rainfall
• Seychelles
  > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall

November 2015 - January 2016

• Bulk of DRC and northernmost Angola
  > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• Northernmost Tanzania
  > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• Northern Mozambique, bulk of Tanzania, northern Malawi, eastern Zambia and extreme south-east of DRC
  > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• Southern DRC, bulk of Angola, most of Namibia, western half of Botswana, most of central and western parts of South Africa
  > Increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall
• Southern Zambia, extreme south of DRC, southern Malawi, northern half of Zimbabwe and central parts of Mozambique
  > Increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall
• Southern half of Zimbabwe, eastern half of Botswana, north and central South Africa, Lesotho, Swaziland and southern Mozambique
  > Increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall
• South-westernmost Angola, western fringes of Namibia and South Africa
  > Increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall
• Western of Madagascar
  > Increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall
• Eastern Madagascar
  > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• Southernmost Madagascar
  > Increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall
• Mauritius
  > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• Seychelles
  > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall

December 2015 - February 2016

• DRC, Zambia, Malawi, bulk of Angola, most of Zimbabwe, greater part of Mozambique and western half of Tanzania
  > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• Eastern half of Tanzania
  > Increased chances of above-normal to normal rainfall
• South-western Angola, most of Namibia, western half of Botswana, most of central and western parts of South Africa and Lesotho
  > Increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall
• Southern third of Zimbabwe, eastern half of Botswana, north and central South Africa, eastern Lesotho, Swaziland and southern Mozambique
  > Increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall
• South-western fringe of Namibia and south-western South Africa
  > Increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall
• Bulk of Madagascar
  > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• Southernmost Madagascar
  > Increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall
• Mauritius
  > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• Seychelles
  > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall

January 2016 - March 2016

• Bulk of DRC and northernmost Angola
  > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• Northernmost Tanzania
  > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• Northern  Mozambique, bulk of Tanzania, northern Malawi, eastern Zambia, extreme south east of DRC
  > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• Southern DRC, bulk of Angola, most of Namibia, western half of Botswana, most of central and western parts of South Africa and western parts of Lesotho
  > Increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall
• Extreme  south  of  DRC, southern Zambia, southern Malawi, northern half of Zimbabwe and central parts of Mozambique
  > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• Southern half of Zimbabwe, eastern half of Botswana, north and central South Africa, eastern Lesotho, Swaziland and southern Mozambique
  > Increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall
• South-westernmost Angola, western fringes of Namibia and South Africa
  > Increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall
• Bulk of Madagascar
  > Increased chances of above-normal to normal rainfall
• Southernmost Madagascar
  > Increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall
• Mauritius
  > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• Seychelles
  > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall