Southern Africa: Rain season (Oct 2013 - March 2014) outlook

The Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum recently issued its annual outlook for the 2013/2014 rainfall season (October - March) over the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region. Owing to the differences and evolution patterns in the predominant rainfall-bearing systems, the rainy season over the region has been subdivided into four overlapping three-month periods. The countries covered by the outlook include all SADC member states (Angola, Botswana, DR Congo, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Seychelles, South Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe)

October - December 2013

• Northern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)
  > Increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall
• Northern Tanzania
  > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• Northern Mozambique, southern Tanzania, northern Malawi, northernmost Zambia, bulk of DRC and north-western half of Angola
  > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• Central Mozambique, southern Malawi, northern half of Zimbabwe, most of Zambia, southernmost DRC, south-eastern half of Angola, bulk of Namibia, western half of Botswana, most of central and western parts of South Africa, western parts of Lesotho
  > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• Extreme south-western Zambia, Caprivi area (Namibia), south-easternmost Angola, south-western half of Zimbabwe, eastern half of Botswana, most of northern South Africa, Swaziland and southern Mozambique
  > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• South-westernmost Angola and western coastal areas of Namibia and South Africa
  > Increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall
• Western Madagascar
  > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• Eastern Madagascar
  > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• Southern Madagascar
  > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• Mauritius
  > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall

November 2013 to Januar 2014

• Bulk of DRC and northernmost Angola
  > Increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall
• Northernmost Tanzania
  > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• Northern Mozambique, bulk of Tanzania, northern Malawi, northern and western Zambia, southern DRC, bulk of Angola, most of Namibia, western half of Botswana, most of central and western parts of South Africa
  > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• Southern Zambia, southern Malawi, northern half of Zimbabwe and central parts of Mozambique
  > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• Southern half of Zimbabwe, eastern half of Botswana, north and central South Africa, Lesotho, Swaziland and southern Mozambique
  > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• South-westernmost Angola, western fringes of Namibia and South Africa
  > Increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall
• Bulk of Madagascar
  > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• Southernmost Madagascar
  > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• Mauritius
  > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall

December 2013 - February 2014

• DRC, Zambia, Malawi, bulk of Angola, most of Zimbabwe, greater part of Mozambique and western half of Tanzania
  > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• Eastern half of Tanzania
  > Increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall
• South-western Angola, most of Namibia, western half of Botswana, most of central and western parts of South Africa and Lesotho
  > Increased chances of above-normal to normal rainfall
• Southern third of Zimbabwe, eastern half of Botswana, north and central South Africa, eastern Lesotho, Swaziland and southern Mozambique
  > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• South-western fringe of Namibia and south-western South Africa
  > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• Western Madagascar
  > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• Eastern Madagascar
  > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• Southernmost Madagascar
  > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• Mauritius
  > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall

January - March 2014

• Bulk of DRC and northernmost Angola
  > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• Northernmost Tanzania
  > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• Northern Mozambique, bulk of Tanzania, northern Malawi, northern and western Zambia, southern DRC, bulk of Angola, most of Namibia, western half of Botswana, most of central and western parts of South Africa and western parts of Lesotho
  > Increased chances of above-normal to normal rainfall
• Southern Zambia, southern Malawi, northern half of Zimbabwe and central parts of Mozambique
  > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• Southern  half of Zimbabwe, eastern half of Botswana, north and central South Africa, eastern Lesotho, Swaziland and southern Mozambique
  > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• South-westernmost Angola, western fringes of Namibia and South Africa
  > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• Bulk of Madagascar
  > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• Southernmost Madagascar
  > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• Mauritius
  > Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall

If you want to read the full statement from the 17th Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (Harare, Zimbabwe, 28 -30 Aug 2013), click here to download (pdf).