The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has released its latest Seasonal Climate Watch for February to June 2026, offering important insights for travellers planning trips across South Africa in late summer, autumn and early winter. Current global climate indicators show the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a weak La Niña phase, which is expected to shift back to a neutral state within the next month. Most climate models suggest ENSO will remain neutral through autumn, with a possible return to El Niño conditions later in spring 2026.
La Niña typically increases the likelihood of above-normal summer rainfall over South Africa's north-eastern regions, including popular safari destinations such as Kruger National Park, Limpopo and Mpumalanga. As the season transitions into autumn, SAWS forecasts that most summer-rainfall areas are likely to receive above-normal rainfall, particularly during the March–April–May period. Some interior regions, however, may experience below-normal rainfall, which could improve road conditions and accessibility in drier landscapes.
Looking ahead to early winter, rainfall projections indicate below-normal rainfall for the southwestern and southern coastal regions, including parts of the Western Cape and Garden Route. This may favour outdoor sightseeing, wine tourism and self-drive travel, although water levels in dams and rivers should still be monitored.
Temperature forecasts suggest that both minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to be above normal across most of South Africa during autumn. For travellers, this points to generally milder, warmer conditions, ideal for wildlife viewing, road trips and shoulder-season travel before winter sets in.
Overall, the February to June 2026 climate outlook supports continued travel across South Africa, with seasonal rainfall patterns and warmer temperatures offering both opportunities and considerations for itinerary planning.
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