The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has released the Seasonal Climate Watch for the period July 2023 to November 2023. According to the seasonal outlook, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently transitioning into warm El Niño-like conditions and is moving into an El Niño state which will most likely persist through most of the summer months. However, it is still too early to indicate whether the this El Niño event will persist through the whole of the summer season, and therefore the close monitoring of ENSO is advised in the coming months. ENSO’s impact is still limited for the current forecast period until the summer season starts which will likely be impacted by a moderate to strong El Niño state if early predictions are correct.
SAWS' multi-model rainfall forecast indicates above-normal rainfall for most of South Africa during winter (July 2023 to September 2023) through to early-spring (August 2023 - October 2023) with below-normal rainfall predicted over parts of the country in the west and the east during mid-Spring. This is still only relevant for the south-western parts of South Africa during winter but also relevant for the eastern coastal areas during spring.
Minimum and maximum temperatures in South Africa are expected to be mostly above-normal countrywide for the forecast period (July to November 2023).
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