South Africa's summer 2026/27: Hotter weather and below-average rainfall expected

South Africa is likely to experience a hotter and drier than normal summer in 2026/27, with below-average rainfall expected across much of the country's north-eastern half. The South African Weather Service (SAWS) forecasts above-normal temperatures and an increased likelihood of below-normal rainfall between October 2026 and February 2027, as a strong El Niño continues to develop.

The seasonal climate outlook, issued on 30 September 2026, indicates that these conditions could affect travel across parts of South Africa, particularly in regions already experiencing water shortages. However, the forecast represents probabilities rather than certainty, and actual weather conditions may vary between regions and throughout the season.

What travellers can expect

The SAWS expects warmer-than-normal minimum and maximum temperatures across most of South Africa during spring and early summer. Below-normal rainfall is more likely across much of the north-eastern half of the country, particularly during late spring and early to mid-summer.

For travellers planning a summer holiday, this could mean hotter conditions, limited water availability in some destinations and an increased risk of veld fires. The outlook is particularly relevant for visitors planning self-drive trips, camping holidays and safaris in South Africa's summer rainfall regions.

The forecast does not mean that the entire country will experience a drought or that rainfall will be absent. Rather, it indicates an increased likelihood of drier conditions than usual in the affected areas.

El Niño and its impact on South Africa

The outlook is consistent with the expected effects of El Niño in Southern Africa. According to the SAWS, the current strong El Niño is expected to intensify towards a very strong phase over the next couple of months and potentially persist until the end of the 2026/27 summer season.

El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that can influence rainfall and temperatures in different parts of the world. In Southern Africa, it is typically associated with warmer and drier conditions, increasing the risk of drought, water shortages and veld fires.

The SAWS warns that below-normal rainfall combined with above-normal temperatures could place additional pressure on water resources, particularly in water-scarce areas of the central interior and north-eastern parts of South Africa.

Travellers visiting South Africa during the 2026/27 summer should keep the seasonal outlook in mind when planning their trips, especially when travelling to areas that depend on limited water resources.

• Safari holidays: Hotter and drier conditions could increase the risk of veld fires and affect vegetation and water availability in some wildlife areas. Actual conditions will depend on local rainfall and temperatures.
• Self-drive trips: Travellers should check local weather forecasts, road conditions and any fire-related restrictions before setting out, particularly when visiting remote areas.
• Camping and outdoor activities: Above-normal temperatures increase the risk of heat stress and dehydration. Carry sufficient drinking water, avoid prolonged exposure to extreme heat and plan outdoor activities around the cooler parts of the day.
• Water availability: Destinations already experiencing water supply challenges may face additional pressure if below-normal rainfall materialises. Travellers staying at campsites, lodges and other accommodation in affected areas should be prepared for possible water-use restrictions.

Although the outlook points towards hotter and drier conditions, it does not predict the timing or severity of individual heatwaves, droughts or fire events. Travellers should therefore continue to monitor local weather forecasts and any travel advisories issued during the summer season.

Keep an eye on updated forecasts

The SAWS will continue to monitor climate conditions and update its seasonal outlook as new information becomes available. Seasonal forecasts become less certain the further ahead they look, making it important for travellers to check the latest information closer to their departure dates.

The October 2026 to February 2027 outlook is a useful indication of the conditions that may develop across South Africa, but it should not be treated as a day-to-day weather forecast. For the latest information, travellers can consult the South African Weather Service's seasonal forecasts and its short-term weather warnings.

Source: South African Weather Service, Seasonal Climate Watch: October 2026 to February 2027, issued 30 September 2026.

 

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Botswana Weather Outlook: Drier and hotter conditions forecast for 2026/27

Travellers planning a trip to Botswana between October 2026 and March 2027 should prepare for hotter and potentially drier-than-normal conditions. Botswana's Department of Meteorological Services (DMS) is forecasting below-normal rainfall across the entire country throughout the 2026/27 season, together with above-normal temperatures.

The outlook covers Botswana's summer rainfall season, including the important period from November to March when many parts of the country normally receive much of their annual rainfall.

Below-normal rainfall expected across Botswana

The rainfall outlook is consistently dry for the entire forecast period:

• October–December 2026: Below-normal rainfall countrywide. Normal rainfall during this period ranges from about 50 mm in Kgalagadi to 210 mm in Chobe.
• November 2026–January 2027: Below-normal rainfall, with normal totals ranging from 50 mm in Kgalagadi to 330 mm in Chobe.
• December 2026–February 2027: Below-normal rainfall countrywide. Normal rainfall ranges from 70 mm in Kgalagadi to 390 mm in Chobe.
• January–March 2027: Below-normal rainfall is again expected throughout Botswana, with normal rainfall ranging from 85 mm in Kgalagadi to 340 mm in Chobe.

For travellers, this does not mean that Botswana will be completely dry. Summer thunderstorms and rainfall can still occur, sometimes producing heavy downpours in a short period. The seasonal forecast indicates that overall rainfall is likely to be lower than the long-term normal, rather than predicting the weather on individual days.

Above-normal temperatures and heatwave risk

Temperatures are also expected to remain above normal throughout the forecast period.

From October to December 2026, normal mean temperatures range from around 31°C in eastern Botswana to 33°C in the northwest. For January to March 2027, normal mean temperatures range from approximately 30°C in the east to 34°C in the northwest.

With temperatures forecast to be above these averages, travellers should be prepared for potentially intense heat, particularly during the hottest part of the day. The DMS also warns of a high risk of frequent heatwaves.

This is particularly relevant for visitors planning self-drive trips, walking activities or game drives. Carry sufficient drinking water, avoid strenuous activities during the hottest hours and make sure your vehicle is properly prepared for long distances and hot conditions.

Strong El Niño adds to the dry-season risk

The forecast is also influenced by the expected return of strong El Niño conditions. According to the DMS, there is a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño event from November 2026 to January 2027.

El Niño is typically associated with drier conditions over Botswana, although its effects vary from one event to another and can be influenced by other climate factors.

The combination of below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures therefore raises concerns about drought and water availability during the 2026/27 season.

What does this mean for Botswana travellers?

The forecast does not mean you should change your Botswana travel plans, but it is worth taking the conditions into account.

If you are visiting during the hot summer months, expect high temperatures and potentially less rainfall than usual. Wildlife and landscapes can respond differently to these conditions depending on the location and availability of water.

For self-drive travellers, the usual summer precautions remain important: check road conditions before setting out, carry plenty of water, keep your vehicle fuelled and be prepared for changing conditions after thunderstorms.

The forecast will also be updated as the season approaches and progresses, so travellers should check shorter-range weather forecasts before travelling rather than relying solely on this seasonal outlook.

In short: Botswana is heading into the 2026/27 summer season with a forecast for below-normal rainfall, above-normal temperatures and an increased risk of heatwaves and drought, influenced in part by a potentially very strong El Niño.

 

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South Africa's Summer Weather Outlook: Hotter and drier conditions expected

Travellers planning a trip to South Africa between September 2026 and January 2027 may want to keep an eye on the weather. The latest seasonal outlook from the South African Weather Service (SAWS) points towards a hotter-than-normal summer, with an increasingly strong El Niño raising the likelihood of drier conditions across large parts of the country.

El Niño is currently strengthening and is forecast to potentially reach a very strong state during the coming months, with conditions expected to persist through at least the end of the 2026/27 summer season. For South Africa, this typically increases the risk of warmer and drier weather.

The outlook is not uniformly dry, however. During spring, favourable rainfall is still possible along parts of the eastern coast and eastern interior. As the country moves into early summer, below-normal rainfall becomes more likely across significant areas, particularly the central interior and far north-east.

There are currently also indications of potentially wetter-than-normal conditions in some eastern parts of South Africa during early summer. SAWS cautions, however, that this part of the forecast remains uncertain as the El Niño event continues to develop.

What could this mean for travellers?

For visitors, the most noticeable impact may simply be the heat. Both minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to be above normal across much of South Africa during spring and early summer.

This could make daytime sightseeing, hiking and other outdoor activities more demanding, especially in inland destinations. Travellers heading to national parks and game reserves should also be prepared for potentially changing conditions if below-normal rainfall becomes established.

A drier summer can affect landscapes, water levels and vegetation, while hot conditions may influence the timing of wildlife activity. For safari travellers, early mornings and late afternoons could become even more important for game viewing.

It is still a seasonal outlook rather than a day-to-day forecast, and conditions can vary considerably between regions. Travellers should therefore not assume that the entire country will experience the same weather. Those visiting South Africa over the coming months would be wise to check updated forecasts closer to departure.

For now, the key message is clear: South Africa's 2026/27 summer could become significantly hotter and drier as El Niño strengthens, although regional rainfall patterns may still change as the season develops.

South Africa Weather Outlook: El Niño may bring a hotter and drier summer

Travellers planning a trip to South Africa towards the end of 2026 and during the 2026/27 summer should keep an eye on the country's developing weather pattern. The South African Weather Service (SAWS) expects the current El Niño to strengthen further, with its more typical effects of warmer and drier conditions increasingly likely during the coming summer.

According to SAWS's latest climate outlook, El Niño could reach a strong state within the next few months and persist until at least the end of the 2026/27 summer season.

A mixed outlook for spring

The transition from winter into spring currently brings a more mixed picture. South Africa's winter-rainfall areas are expected to see favourable rainfall conditions, while the eastern coastal regions face an increased likelihood of below-normal rainfall as they move into their wetter season.

Temperatures are also expected to be above normal across much of South Africa during spring, with both daytime and overnight temperatures likely to be higher than usual.

A drier start to summer possible

The early part of the summer season is already showing signs of potentially significant below-normal rainfall, particularly as the strengthening El Niño begins to influence regional weather patterns.

For travellers, this could mean hotter conditions for self-drive holidays, safaris and outdoor activities. Lower rainfall can also affect landscapes, water availability and, over time, wildlife viewing conditions. However, the outlook is a seasonal forecast rather than a day-to-day weather prediction, and conditions can still vary considerably between regions.

Anyone planning to visit South Africa during the coming spring and summer should therefore check local weather forecasts closer to their trip and remain aware of possible heat, drought and changing fire conditions.

 

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Botswana Weather Outlook 2026/27: What travellers should know about El Niño, drought and wildfire risk

If you're planning a safari or self-drive adventure in Botswana between late 2026 and early 2027, it's worth keeping an eye on the weather.

Botswana's Department of Meteorological Services has released its 2026/27 Seasonal Rainfall Outlook, forecasting a greater than 90% chance that El Niño conditions will develop and influence the country's rainy season from October 2026 to March 2027.

While this does not mean Botswana will receive no rain, it does suggest that rainfall is more likely to be below average, less reliable and interrupted by prolonged dry spells. At the same time, above-average temperatures are expected across much of the country.

What does this mean for travellers?

For visitors, particularly those planning safaris in destinations such as the Okavango Delta, Chobe National Park, the Central Kalahari Game Reserve or the Makgadikgadi Pans, the forecast could influence travel conditions in several ways.

Possible impacts include:

• Hotter daytime temperatures, especially during the summer months.
• Longer dry periods between rainfall events.
• Increased drought stress on vegetation and water sources.
• A higher likelihood of veld and bush fires, particularly from August onwards.
• More variable weather, with isolated heavy showers still possible despite an overall drier season.

As always, weather patterns can change during the season, so travellers should remain flexible and monitor local forecasts before and during their trip.

Elevated wildfire risk

One of the biggest concerns highlighted in the seasonal outlook is the increased wildfire risk.

Botswana experienced a favourable rainy season in 2025/26, resulting in abundant grass and vegetation growth across much of the country. While this is generally good news for wildlife and ecosystems, it has also created large amounts of dry fuel that can easily ignite during hot, dry conditions.

With El Niño expected to bring warmer temperatures and extended dry spells, authorities warn that the 2026 fire season, beginning in August, could see larger and faster-moving wildfires.

Travellers visiting national parks, game reserves and remote wilderness areas should be aware that temporary road closures, restricted access or smoky conditions are possible if significant fires occur.

Should you change your travel plans?

At this stage, there is no reason to cancel or postpone a trip to Botswana.

Botswana remains one of Africa's premier safari destinations, and many visitors travel during dry years without experiencing major disruptions. In fact, drier conditions often improve wildlife viewing as animals concentrate around permanent water sources.

However, sensible preparation is recommended:

• Carry plenty of drinking water, especially on self-drive trips.
• Pack lightweight clothing, a hat and high-factor sunscreen.
• Stay informed about local weather forecasts.
• Check park conditions before entering protected areas.
• Follow any fire safety advice issued by park authorities or accommodation providers.

Bottom line

Seasonal climate outlooks are designed to help governments, businesses and travellers prepare for the months ahead. They are probability forecasts, not guarantees, meaning local conditions may differ considerably from the overall seasonal outlook.

We'll continue to monitor the situation and publish updates should significant weather developments, wildfire activity or travel advisories affect visitors to Botswana during the 2026/27 season.

 

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South Africa Weather Outlook: What travellers can expect from July to November 2026

If you're planning a trip to South Africa over the coming months, it may be worth keeping an eye on the latest seasonal weather outlook.

The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has released its climate outlook for the period from July to November 2026, pointing to generally warmer-than-normal conditions across much of the country. While seasonal forecasts cannot predict the weather for a specific day or location, they do provide a useful indication of broader climate trends that may influence travel plans.

El Niño is returning

According to SAWS, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has now entered a weak El Niño phase and is expected to strengthen rapidly over the next few months. Forecast models currently suggest that a strong El Niño could develop by early summer and persist throughout much of the 2026/27 summer season.

Although the strongest impacts are usually felt during the summer rainfall season, the developing El Niño pattern already provides an indication of what travellers can expect later this year.

Historically, strong El Niño events often bring hotter and drier conditions across much of South Africa's interior during summer, although it remains too early to accurately forecast conditions beyond spring.

Warmer weather expected across most of South Africa

For the remainder of winter and into spring, SAWS expects both daytime and overnight temperatures to remain above average across most parts of South Africa.

For travellers, this could mean pleasantly mild winter days in many destinations, although mornings and evenings in the interior—including places such as the Highveld, the Drakensberg and the Karoo—can still become quite cold.

As always during winter, layering clothing remains the best approach, especially if your itinerary includes early morning game drives or overnight stays in higher-altitude regions.

Rainfall patterns will differ by region

Rainfall expectations vary considerably depending on where you plan to travel.

The forecast suggests that South Africa's eastern coastline could receive above-average rainfall during late winter and spring. Visitors travelling to destinations such as KwaZulu-Natal and parts of the Eastern Cape should therefore be prepared for occasional wet spells alongside generally mild temperatures.

In contrast, the south-western and southern coastal regions, including the Western Cape's winter rainfall areas, are expected to experience below-average rainfall during the same period. While this could mean more opportunities for sightseeing and outdoor activities, visitors should continue to be mindful of ongoing water conservation efforts where applicable.

What this means for travellers

Overall, the seasonal outlook paints a favourable picture for travel across much of South Africa during the coming months.

Travellers can generally expect:

• Warmer-than-normal temperatures across most of the country.
• Mostly dry conditions over the Western Cape and southern coastal regions.
• An increased likelihood of rainfall along the eastern coastline during late winter and spring.
• Early indications that the coming summer may become hotter and drier if El Niño continues to strengthen.

It's worth remembering that seasonal outlooks describe broad climate patterns rather than day-to-day weather. Local forecasts issued closer to your travel dates will always provide the most accurate information for individual destinations.

SAWS will continue monitoring the evolving El Niño conditions and will issue updated seasonal outlooks as new data becomes available. Travellers planning trips to South Africa later this year or into the 2026/27 summer season should keep an eye on future updates, particularly if their itineraries include outdoor activities, wildlife safaris or self-drive holidays.

 

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South Africa Climate Update: Warmer temperatures and drier conditions expected

The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has released its seasonal climate outlook for June to October 2026, offering important insights for anyone planning winter travel across South Africa. 

South African travellers, holidaymakers and outdoor enthusiasts should keep a close eye on the developing weather pattern over the coming months. According to the latest seasonal climate outlook, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains in a neutral phase for now, but meteorologists increasingly expect conditions to shift towards El Niño during the coming weeks.

Forecast confidence has improved significantly as global climate models move beyond the period of reduced ENSO forecast reliability. Current projections indicate that El Niño conditions could strengthen throughout the second half of 2026 and persist for much of the 2026/27 summer season.

What does El Niño mean for South Africa?

Although seasonal forecasts currently extend only into the transition from winter to spring, historical El Niño events provide useful guidance. Typically, El Niño brings:

• Hotter-than-normal temperatures across much of South Africa
• Reduced summer rainfall over large parts of the country
• Increased risk of drought conditions in some regions
• More challenging conditions for agriculture and water resources

For travellers, this could mean excellent opportunities for outdoor activities, wildlife viewing and road trips, but potentially drier landscapes in some areas during the peak summer months.

Winter rainfall outlook

South Africa's winter rainfall is largely concentrated along the country's south-western, southern and eastern coastal regions.

Current forecasts suggest:

Eastern coastal areas
The eastern coastline, including parts of KwaZulu-Natal and the Eastern Cape, is expected to receive above-normal rainfall during winter and early spring. Travellers visiting these regions should be prepared for occasional wet weather, particularly along the coast.

South-Western and Southern Cape
The outlook is less favourable for the traditional winter rainfall regions of the Western Cape and southern coastal areas. These regions are expected to experience below-normal rainfall during late winter and early spring.

For visitors planning trips to Cape Town, the Garden Route and surrounding areas, this could result in fewer rainy days than typically expected during the winter season.

Warmer winter temperatures expected

Both minimum and maximum temperatures are forecast to remain above average across most of South Africa throughout winter.

This is good news for travellers exploring destinations such as:

• Kruger National Park
• The Garden Route
• Cape Town and the Cape Winelands
• The Drakensberg
• KwaZulu-Natal's coastline

While winter mornings may still be chilly, many regions could experience warmer-than-usual daytime conditions, creating favourable conditions for sightseeing, hiking and wildlife viewing.

What travellers should expect

Although El Niño's full impact on the upcoming summer season remains uncertain, the emerging trend points towards a warmer and potentially drier South African summer.

Travellers planning holidays between November 2026 and March 2027 should monitor updated seasonal forecasts, particularly if visiting water-dependent destinations or regions that are sensitive to drought conditions.

For now, the South African Weather Service (SAWS) will continue to monitor developments and provide updated guidance as confidence in the summer outlook increases.

As always, weather patterns can evolve rapidly, and travellers are advised to check the latest forecasts before departure, especially when planning outdoor adventures, national park visits or coastal holidays.

 

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