If you're planning a safari or self-drive adventure in Botswana between late 2026 and early 2027, it's worth keeping an eye on the weather.
Botswana's Department of Meteorological Services has released its 2026/27 Seasonal Rainfall Outlook, forecasting a greater than 90% chance that El Niño conditions will develop and influence the country's rainy season from October 2026 to March 2027.
While this does not mean Botswana will receive no rain, it does suggest that rainfall is more likely to be below average, less reliable and interrupted by prolonged dry spells. At the same time, above-average temperatures are expected across much of the country.
What does this mean for travellers?
For visitors, particularly those planning safaris in destinations such as the Okavango Delta, Chobe National Park, the Central Kalahari Game Reserve or the Makgadikgadi Pans, the forecast could influence travel conditions in several ways.
Possible impacts include:
- Hotter daytime temperatures, especially during the summer months.
- Longer dry periods between rainfall events.
- Increased drought stress on vegetation and water sources.
- A higher likelihood of veld and bush fires, particularly from August onwards.
- More variable weather, with isolated heavy showers still possible despite an overall drier season.
As always, weather patterns can change during the season, so travellers should remain flexible and monitor local forecasts before and during their trip.
Elevated wildfire risk
One of the biggest concerns highlighted in the seasonal outlook is the increased wildfire risk.
Botswana experienced a favourable rainy season in 2025/26, resulting in abundant grass and vegetation growth across much of the country. While this is generally good news for wildlife and ecosystems, it has also created large amounts of dry fuel that can easily ignite during hot, dry conditions.
With El Niño expected to bring warmer temperatures and extended dry spells, authorities warn that the 2026 fire season, beginning in August, could see larger and faster-moving wildfires.
Travellers visiting national parks, game reserves and remote wilderness areas should be aware that temporary road closures, restricted access or smoky conditions are possible if significant fires occur.
Should you change your travel plans?
At this stage, there is no reason to cancel or postpone a trip to Botswana.
Botswana remains one of Africa's premier safari destinations, and many visitors travel during dry years without experiencing major disruptions. In fact, drier conditions often improve wildlife viewing as animals concentrate around permanent water sources.
However, sensible preparation is recommended:
- Carry plenty of drinking water, especially on self-drive trips.
- Pack lightweight clothing, a hat and high-factor sunscreen.
- Stay informed about local weather forecasts.
- Check park conditions before entering protected areas.
- Follow any fire safety advice issued by park authorities or accommodation providers.
Bottom line
Seasonal climate outlooks are designed to help governments, businesses and travellers prepare for the months ahead. They are probability forecasts, not guarantees, meaning local conditions may differ considerably from the overall seasonal outlook.
We'll continue to monitor the situation and publish updates should significant weather developments, wildfire activity or travel advisories affect visitors to Botswana during the 2026/27 season.
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