Travellers planning a trip to Botswana between October 2026 and March 2027 should prepare for hotter and potentially drier-than-normal conditions. Botswana's Department of Meteorological Services (DMS) is forecasting below-normal rainfall across the entire country throughout the 2026/27 season, together with above-normal temperatures.
The outlook covers Botswana's summer rainfall season, including the important period from November to March when many parts of the country normally receive much of their annual rainfall.
Below-normal rainfall expected across Botswana
The rainfall outlook is consistently dry for the entire forecast period:
- October–December 2026: Below-normal rainfall countrywide. Normal rainfall during this period ranges from about 50 mm in Kgalagadi to 210 mm in Chobe.
- November 2026–January 2027: Below-normal rainfall, with normal totals ranging from 50 mm in Kgalagadi to 330 mm in Chobe.
- December 2026–February 2027: Below-normal rainfall countrywide. Normal rainfall ranges from 70 mm in Kgalagadi to 390 mm in Chobe.
- January–March 2027: Below-normal rainfall is again expected throughout Botswana, with normal rainfall ranging from 85 mm in Kgalagadi to 340 mm in Chobe.
For travellers, this does not mean that Botswana will be completely dry. Summer thunderstorms and rainfall can still occur, sometimes producing heavy downpours in a short period. The seasonal forecast indicates that overall rainfall is likely to be lower than the long-term normal, rather than predicting the weather on individual days.
Above-normal temperatures and heatwave risk
Temperatures are also expected to remain above normal throughout the forecast period.
From October to December 2026, normal mean temperatures range from around 31°C in eastern Botswana to 33°C in the northwest. For January to March 2027, normal mean temperatures range from approximately 30°C in the east to 34°C in the northwest.
With temperatures forecast to be above these averages, travellers should be prepared for potentially intense heat, particularly during the hottest part of the day. The DMS also warns of a high risk of frequent heatwaves.
This is particularly relevant for visitors planning self-drive trips, walking activities or game drives. Carry sufficient drinking water, avoid strenuous activities during the hottest hours and make sure your vehicle is properly prepared for long distances and hot conditions.
Strong El Niño adds to the dry-season risk
The forecast is also influenced by the expected return of strong El Niño conditions. According to the DMS, there is a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño event from November 2026 to January 2027.
El Niño is typically associated with drier conditions over Botswana, although its effects vary from one event to another and can be influenced by other climate factors.
The combination of below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures therefore raises concerns about drought and water availability during the 2026/27 season.
What does this mean for Botswana travellers?
The forecast does not mean you should change your Botswana travel plans, but it is worth taking the conditions into account.
If you are visiting during the hot summer months, expect high temperatures and potentially less rainfall than usual. Wildlife and landscapes can respond differently to these conditions depending on the location and availability of water.
For self-drive travellers, the usual summer precautions remain important: check road conditions before setting out, carry plenty of water, keep your vehicle fuelled and be prepared for changing conditions after thunderstorms.
The forecast will also be updated as the season approaches and progresses, so travellers should check shorter-range weather forecasts before travelling rather than relying solely on this seasonal outlook.
In short: Botswana is heading into the 2026/27 summer season with a forecast for below-normal rainfall, above-normal temperatures and an increased risk of heatwaves and drought, influenced in part by a potentially very strong El Niño.
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