Southern Africa: Rain season (October 2017 - March 2018) outlook!

The Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum has isuued the annual outlook for the 2017/2018 rainfall season (October - March) in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region*. The period, October to March, is the main rainfall season over most of southern Africa. Owing to the differences and evolution patterns in the predominant rainfall-bearing systems, the rainy season over the region has been subdivided into four overlapping three-month periods. The countries covered by the outlook include all SADC member states (Angola, Botswana, Democratic Republic of Congo, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Seychelles, South Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe).

Summary:
The bulk of the 15 member states of the SADC is likely to receive normal to below-normal rainfall for most of the period October to December 2017 and normal to above-normal rainfall for the January to March 2018. However, the northernmost Democratic Republic of Congo, northern Tanzania, Mauritius,  Seychelles, eastern-most Madagascar and the south-eastern contiguous SADC region are likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall throughout the 2017/18 rainy season. 

 

October - December 2017:

• Northern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)
• Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• Northern Tanzania
• Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• Northern Mozambique, southern Tanzania, northern Malawi, northernmost Zambia, bulk of DRC and north-western half of Angola
• Increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall
• Central Mozambique, southern Malawi, northern half of Zimbabwe, most of Zambia, southernmost DRC, south-eastern half of Angola, bulk of Namibia, western half of Botswana, most of central and western parts of South Africa, western parts of Lesotho
• Increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall
• Extreme south-western Zambia, Caprivi area, south-easternmost Angola, south-western half of Zimbabwe, eastern half of Botswana, most of northern South Africa, eastern Lesotho, Swaziland, southern Mozambique
• Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• South-westernmost Angola and western coastal areas of Namibia and South Africa
• Increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall
• Western Madagascar
• Increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall
• Eastern Madagascar
• Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• Southern Madagascar
• Increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall
• Mauritius
• Increased chances of normal to below -normal rainfall
• Seychelles
• Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall

November 2017 - January 2018:

• Bulk of DRC and northernmost Angola
• Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• Northern half of Tanzania
• Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• Northern Mozambique, southern half Tanzania, northern Malawi, eastern Zambia, southern DRC, bulk of Angola, most of Namibia, western half of Botswana, most of central and western parts of South Africa
• Increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall
• Central parts of Zambia, southern Malawi, Northern half of Zimbabwe and central parts of Mozambique
• Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• Southern half of Zimbabwe, eastern half of Botswana, north and central South Africa, Lesotho, Swaziland and southern Mozambique
• Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• South-westernmost Angola, western fringes of Namibia and South Africa
• Increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall
• Western of Madagascar
• Increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall
• Eastern Madagascar
• Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• Southernmost Madagascar
• Increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall
• Mauritius
• Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• Seychelles
• Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall

December 2017 - February 2018:

• DRC, Zambia, Malawi, bulk of Angola, most of Zimbabwe, greater part of Mozambique and western half of Tanzania
• Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• Eastern half of Tanzania
• Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• South-western Angola, most of Namibia, western half of Botswana, most of central and western parts of South Africa and Lesotho
• Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• Southern third of Zimbabwe, eastern half of Botswana, north and central South Africa, Swaziland and southern Mozambique
• Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• South-western fringe of Namibia and south-western South Africa
• Increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall
• Southernmost Madagascar
• Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• Central Madagascar
• Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• Northernmost of Madagascar
• Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• Mauritius
• Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• Seychelles
• Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall 

January 2018 - March 2018:

• Bulk of DRC and northernmost Angola
• Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• Northernmost Tanzania
• Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• Northern Mozambique, bulk of Tanzania, northern Malawi, northern and western Zambia, bulk of Angola, south eastern DRC, north-western tip of Botswana and northernmost Namibia
• Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• Central Mozambique, southern Malawi, central Zambia and northern half of Zimbabwe
• Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• Southern Mozambique, southern half of Zimbabwe, eastern half of Botswana, central and northern South Africa, Swaziland and eastern Lesotho
• Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• Western half of Botswana, central to southern Namibia, western Lesotho and central South Africa
• Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• South-western tip of Angola, western fringes of Namibia and South Africa
• Increased chances of normal to below-normal rainfall
• Northernmost Madagascar
• Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• Central Madagascar
• Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• Southernmost Madagascar
• Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• Mauritius
• Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall
• Seychelles
• Increased chances of normal to above-normal rainfall

*Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF-21)