The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has released the Seasonal Climate Watch for the period June 2023 to October 2023. According to the seasonal outlook, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a neutral state. However, forecasts indicate that it will likely move into weak El Niño state during late-winter and early-spring and eventually strengthening into a strong El Niño state for the remainder of the summer season. ENSO’s impact is expected to be limited for the current forecast period until the summer season starts which will likely be impacted by a strong El Niño state if early predictions are correct.
The multi-model rainfall forecast indicates above-normal rainfall for most of South Africa during winter (June - August) through to early-spring (August - October). This is still only relevant for the south-western parts of the country during winter but also relevant for South Africa's eastern coastal areas during spring.
Minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to be mostly above-normal countrywide for the forecast period.
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