South Africa: The countdown begins to the annual Sardine Run! [update]

update (18 June 2022): Sean Lange of thesardine.co.za has set up a super handy Sardine Run 2022 Sightings Map, which is getting updated regulary. See below!

update (17 June 2022): The KwaZulu-Natal Sharks Board Maritime Centre of Excellence has conducted an observation flight into the Eastern Cape waters on 14 June 2022 to assess the movement of the sardine shoals thus far. The flight departed from Virginia Airport and turned at Hole in the Wall.

• water was still discoloured, ranging from 1-4m in KwaZulu-Natal, with some areas still having zero visibility. The upper region of the Eastern Cape, from Mzamba to Goss Point, had a maximum of 2-3m visibility, with areas where mud was still being churned up from the seabed to the surface. There was very little sardine related activity spotted in this area, apart from 2 very small pockets seen in the surf zone off the Wild Coast Sun.
• decent purple shoals of sardines, from Waterfall Bluff scattered right through to Poenskop, just north of Port Saint Johns. These pockets were mostly seen along the shallow line between the backline and slightly offshore. There were approximately 40 pockets seen with one being a long thin piece about 400m long.
• large pods of common and bottlenose dolphin.
• 18 Humpback Whales and 2 Brydes Whales.
• From Port Saint Johns to Hole In The Wall the sardine related activity was seen further offshore, with the majority of the Cape Gannets off Hluleka and Mtakatye.
• The KwaZulu-Natal Sharks Board Maritime Centre of Excellence cannot really gauge how fast the sardine shoals are moving north or if they are still holding in the Waterfall Bluff/Mboyti area.
• There is also a possibility that the pilot shoals have already moved through the KwaZulu-Natal waters unnoticed under the cover of the dirty water or on a deeper line.

update (25 May 2022): The KwaZulu-Natal Sharks Board Maritime Centre of Excellence has conducted an observation flight into the Eastern Cape waters on 25 May 2022 to assess the movement of the sardine shoals thus far. The flight departed from Virginia Airport and turned at Hole in the Wall.
The indications are all positive that the sardines are making their way up from the Eastern Cape towards KwaZulu-Natal. Especially, when you take the increase in shark activity at Grosvenor (15-20 x sharks jumping in the muddy water 150m behind backline with 30 gannets searching) into consideration. There is also a good possibility that activity further north towards KwaZulu-Natal has beem missed due to the poor visibility. However there have been many occasions in the past when predictions and opinions have been totally incorrect. 

update (20 May 2022): The KwaZulu-Natal Sharks Board Maritime Centre of Excellence conducted another sardine observation flight into the Eastern Cape waters on 19 May 2022. According to the KZN Sharks Board, indications are all positive that the sardines are making their way up from the Eastern Cape towards KwaZulu-Natal. Taking into consideration that most of last week’s activity was much further south than today’s flight, it seems that there has already been a considerable surge north of these fish. There is a possibility that the predicted cold front for this weekend is pretty well timed. A cold front can often enhance the movements of the shoals and cause them to move inshore and north at a rapid pace. However there have been many occasions in the past when predictions and opinions have been totally incorrect. 

update (13 May 2022): The KwaZulu-Natal Sharks Board Maritime Centre of Excellence has undertaken its first sardine observation flight of the 2022 season on 12  May 2022. The first, and early, indications (spotting of 50 small pilot shoals of sardines/baitfish off Umngazi River Bungalows; small thin pockets shimmering on the surface off the Mthatha River and Mpame Point; concentrated activity  starting at the Qholorha Mouth, Kei Mouth, Haga Haga, Chintsa, Gonubi and East London; thousands of Cape gannets were seen spread out, sitting on the water in rafts throughout this area, with concentrated diving in some areas. These gannets were accompanied by hundreds of Common and Bottlenose Dolphins) are all positive that the sardines are making their way up the Eastern Cape towards KwaZulu-Natal and are possibly a few weeks away. However there have been many occasions in the past when predictions and opinions have been totally incorrect.

According to a press release by Visit KZN South Coast, the official tourism body of KwaZulu-Natal's South Coast, the countdown to the annual Sardine Run is about to begin. The KwaZulu-Natal Sharks Board Maritime Centre of Excellence (KZNSB) announced that it is planning to start their Sardine Run monitoring in the second week of May 2022. The annual Sardine Run is believed to be one of the planet’s biggest biomass migration. Billions of sardines move northwards from the cool waters of the Agulhas Bank along the east coast of South Africa towards warmer waters. The Sardine Run usually occurs annually from May through July. 

Image credit: Noel McDonogh / visitkznsouthcoast.co.za

“Temperature is the main thing that dictates the timing and extent of the movement up the coast. It has been an unusual couple of years in that they’ve been very wet. But 2020 and 2021 were relatively good Sardine Runs, both of which were similarly wet being La Niña years. It’s holding the same pattern, so I think we’re going to get another good one. But we’ll have to wait and see!” Dr Ryan Daly, Marine Scientist at the Oceanographic Research Institute (ORI).

Dr Ryan Daly further explained that although recent floods in KwaZulu-Natal caused a surge in water and debris into the Indian Ocean, the impact on the ocean had largely passed, and it should not impact the Sardine Run.