South Africa Winter Weather Outlook (May to September 2026): What Travellers Need to Know

The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has released its seasonal climate outlook for May to September 2026, offering important insights for anyone planning winter travel across South Africa.

ENSO Watch: Possible El Niño developing

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a neutral phase, but forecasts suggest a rapid shift towards El Niño conditions in the coming months. This trend could strengthen into spring and early summer.

However, travellers should note: forecast reliability is lower during winter, meaning conditions can still change. If your itinerary depends on weather (especially for safaris or coastal travel), keep monitoring updates throughout the season.

Rainfall Patterns: Where to expect wet or dry conditions

South Africa's winter rainfall remains regionally distinct:

• Eastern coastal regions (e.g. KwaZulu-Natal):
• Likely to see above-normal rainfall, which may affect beach plans but improve lush landscapes.
• South-western and southern coastal regions (e.g. Western Cape, Garden Route):
• Expect below-normal rainfall, meaning drier-than-usual conditions in typically winter-rainfall areas.
• Interior regions:
• Remain largely dry, as is typical for winter.

Temperature outlook: Warmer winter ahead

Both minimum and maximum temperatures are forecast to be above average across most of South Africa. For travellers, this means:

• Milder mornings and evenings in safari regions
• Comfortable daytime conditions for road trips and outdoor activities
• Potentially less dramatic cold fronts in the Cape

Travel takeaways

• Safari season remains strong: Dry bushveld conditions improve wildlife visibility, with slightly warmer temperatures adding comfort.
• Cape Town & Western Cape: Expect fewer rainy days than usual—but still pack layers.
• KwaZulu-Natal coast: Be prepared for occasional rain despite winter timing.
• Stay flexible: With a possible El Niño forming, conditions may shift heading into spring.

If you’re planning a South Africa itinerary for mid-2026, this outlook suggests generally favourable travel conditions, with a few regional nuances worth factoring into your route planning.

 

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South Africa Weather Outlook (April–August 2026): What travellers should expect

According to the South African Weather Service (SAWS), the latest seasonal outlook for April to August 2026 provides important insights for travellers planning trips across South Africa during the autumn and winter months.

ENSO update: Possible shift towards El Niño

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a neutral phase. However, forecasts indicate a likely transition towards an El Niño state in the coming months, potentially strengthening into spring and early summer.

Travellers should note that forecast confidence is typically lower during the Southern Hemisphere winter, meaning conditions may change. Keeping track of updated forecasts is strongly recommended.

Rainfall patterns: Regional travel impacts

Rainfall expectations vary significantly by region during this period:

• Eastern and south-eastern coastal regions of South Africa: Likely to receive above-normal rainfall in late autumn, with the eastern coast continuing wetter-than-average into winter.
• Southern and south-western coastal areas of South Africa: Expected to experience below-normal rainfall during winter—favourable for outdoor exploration and scenic travel routes.

This creates contrasting travel conditions: greener, more humid landscapes in the east versus drier, clearer weather in the south-west.

Temperature outlook: Warmer than average

SAWS indicates that both minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to be above normal across most parts of South Africa throughout autumn and early winter. For travellers, this generally means mild, comfortable conditions—ideal for safaris and road trips.

Travel Tips for April to August 2026

• Plan by region: Choose the east for lush scenery or the west for dry, sunny conditions.
• Pack smart: Layered clothing is essential due to regional and daily temperature variations.
• Stay weather-aware: Monitor SAWS updates as ENSO conditions evolve.
• Book flexibly: Especially for travel later in the season, as forecasts may shift.

Bottom line

The SAWS outlook for April to August 2026 suggests generally warm conditions with regionally varied rainfall in South Africa. A possible El Niño development could influence travel conditions later in the year—so staying informed is key for a smooth journey.

 

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South Africa Weather Outlook March–July 2026: What travellers need to know

The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has published its latest Seasonal Climate Watch for March to July 2026, providing essential guidance for travellers planning trips across South Africa during the autumn and early winter months.

According to the SAWS, the global climate pattern known as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a weak La Niña phase. However, it is expected to return to neutral conditions in the coming months, with a possible shift to El Niño by the end of winter 2026.

For travellers, this does not mean immediate disruption. Autumn and early winter trips (March–July 2026) are unlikely to be affected.

The potential El Niño development is more relevant for South Africa’s next summer rainfall season (late 2026 into early 2027). El Niño years can influence summer rainfall patterns, particularly in the country’s interior and safari regions.

If you are planning travel for late 2026 or early 2027 - especially to summer rainfall destinations such as the Kruger Lowveld - it is advisable to keep an eye on updated seasonal forecasts from SAWS in the months ahead.

For now, there is no cause for concern for current travel plans.

Rainfall outlook: Coastal differences to keep in mind

During autumn and early winter, most of South Africa’s significant rainfall is concentrated along the coast.

Above-normal rainfall expected:

• South-eastern coastal areas
• Eastern coastal regions (including parts of KwaZulu-Natal and sections of the Eastern Cape coastline)

Travellers heading to beach destinations or planning coastal road trips should prepare for occasional rainfall events and possible short-lived disruptions.

Below-normal rainfall forecast:

• South-western coastal regions, including parts of the Western Cape

Visitors to Cape Town and surrounding areas may experience fewer cold fronts than usual, although winter weather systems can still occur.

Temperature outlook: Warmer than usual nationwide

SAWS indicates that both minimum and maximum temperatures are likely to be above normal across most of South Africa during the March–July period.

For travellers, this generally means:

• Mild mornings, even in typically cooler inland areas
• Comfortable daytime temperatures for safaris and outdoor activities
• A reduced likelihood of early winter cold snaps

In major wildlife destinations such as Kruger National Park, warmer early winter conditions combined with gradually drying vegetation can improve visibility and wildlife sightings as the season progresses.

Travel planning takeaways (March–July 2026)

1. Excellent conditions for safaris
As interior regions dry out, bush density reduces and animal sightings typically improve.

2. Flexible coastal itineraries recommended
Eastern coastal travellers should allow for some rain days.

3. Ideal self-drive season
Above-normal temperatures and generally stable conditions favour road trips across provinces.

4. Monitor Long-Term ENSO Updates
Those planning late-2026 or early-2027 travel should follow updated SAWS seasonal forecasts.

Overall Outlook for Travellers

The March to July 2026 period is shaping up to be warmer than average across most of South Africa, with rainfall mainly affecting eastern and south-eastern coastal areas. While climate models indicate a possible El Niño later in the year, this does not impact current autumn and early winter travel plans.

 

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South Africa Seasonal Climate Outlook: What travellers should know (February–June 2026)

The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has released its latest Seasonal Climate Watch for February to June 2026, offering important insights for travellers planning trips across South Africa in late summer, autumn and early winter. Current global climate indicators show the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a weak La Niña phase, which is expected to shift back to a neutral state within the next month. Most climate models suggest ENSO will remain neutral through autumn, with a possible return to El Niño conditions later in spring 2026.

La Niña typically increases the likelihood of above-normal summer rainfall over South Africa's north-eastern regions, including popular safari destinations such as Kruger National Park, Limpopo and Mpumalanga. As the season transitions into autumn, SAWS forecasts that most summer-rainfall areas are likely to receive above-normal rainfall, particularly during the March–April–May period. Some interior regions, however, may experience below-normal rainfall, which could improve road conditions and accessibility in drier landscapes.

Looking ahead to early winter, rainfall projections indicate below-normal rainfall for the southwestern and southern coastal regions, including parts of the Western Cape and Garden Route. This may favour outdoor sightseeing, wine tourism and self-drive travel, although water levels in dams and rivers should still be monitored.

Temperature forecasts suggest that both minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to be above normal across most of South Africa during autumn. For travellers, this points to generally milder, warmer conditions, ideal for wildlife viewing, road trips and shoulder-season travel before winter sets in.

Overall, the February to June 2026 climate outlook supports continued travel across South Africa, with seasonal rainfall patterns and warmer temperatures offering both opportunities and considerations for itinerary planning.

 

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Travelling to South Africa this season? Here’s what the weather outlook suggests!

Travellers planning a holiday to South Africa over the coming summer and autumn seasons should take note of evolving climate patterns, as meteorologists indicate a likely transition toward a weak La Niña event later in the summer.

According to South Africa’s latest Seasonal Climate Watch for January to May 2026, weather patterns are currently stable, with no strong El Niño or La Niña in place. However, forecasters expect a brief and mild shift towards La Niña conditions later in the summer. While this is not expected to cause extreme weather, it can influence when and where rain falls, as well as day- and night-time temperatures - factors worth keeping in mind when planning safaris, coastal holidays, or scenic road trips in South Africa.

Increased rainfall likely in key safari regions
Historically, La Niña conditions increase the likelihood of above-normal rainfall in north-eastern South Africa, especially during summer. This is particularly relevant for travellers visiting popular safari and wildlife destinations such as:

• Kruger National Park
• Limpopo and Mpumalanga game reserves
• Northern KwaZulu-Natal

For safari enthusiasts, increased rainfall can mean lush landscapes, abundant water sources, and excellent birdlife, although it may also result in higher humidity and occasional road closures in remote areas. Travellers planning self-drive safaris or overland trips should factor this into their itineraries.

Late summer and autumn outlook: What to expect
During late summer and early autumn, most of South Africa's traditionally rainy regions are expected to receive above-normal rainfall. This can be beneficial for nature-based travel, photography, and scenic routes, but travellers should remain flexible with outdoor activities.

As autumn progresses into mid-autumn, rainfall typically decreases over the north-eastern parts of the country. However, forecasts suggest that central regions of South Africa may still experience above-normal rainfall, which could affect road travel and outdoor sightseeing in those areas.

In contrast, southern and eastern coastal regions, including parts of the Western Cape and Eastern Cape, are expected to receive below-normal rainfall during autumn, even though these areas usually still receive meaningful precipitation at this time of year. For travellers, this could translate into drier, more stable conditions, ideal for coastal road trips, wine tourism, and city breaks.

Temperature trends: Warmer nights ahead
Temperature forecasts indicate that minimum temperatures (night-time lows) are expected to be above normal across most of South Africa during summer. This is relevant for travellers camping, staying in safari lodges, or planning outdoor evening activities.

Maximum daytime temperatures show some uncertainty during late summer and early autumn. However, by mid-autumn, above-normal daytime temperatures are expected across much of the country, suggesting generally warmer and more pleasant travel conditions, particularly outside peak summer heat.

What this means for holiday planning
For travellers and tourists, the expected weak La Niña pattern suggests:

• Excellent green-season safaris in the north-east
• Potentially wetter conditions for summer road trips and outdoor adventures
• Drier autumn weather along southern and eastern coastal destinations
• Warmer nights, especially relevant for camping and lodge stays

As always, travellers are advised to monitor local weather updates, build flexibility into itineraries, and plan accommodation and transport accordingly—especially when travelling during South Africa’s summer rainfall season.

 

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Summer 2025/26 weather outlook: What South Africa’s weak La Niña means for travellers!

The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has released its latest Seasonal Climate Watch for the period December 2025 to April 2026. According to the outlook, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is still in a neutral state; however, it is closing in on transitioning to a weak La Niña state. Predictions indicate that South Africa is moving towards a weak La Niña event during the coming summer season. Most predictions indicate that there will be a short and weak La Niña state during mid- and late summer. The usual effect of La Niña on South Africa is for an increased likelihood to receive above-normal rainfall over the north-eastern parts of the country during summer.
Most of the areas that receive significant rainfall in the coming summer are situated in the north-east of South Africa. Most of these areas are expected to receive above-normal rainfall during the forecast period up until late-summer.
Minimum temperatures are largely expected to be above-normal for most parts of South Africa during summer, with maximum temperatures likely to be below-normal for the north-eastern parts of the country and above-normal for the south-west. This increased likelihood of below-normal maximum temperatures indicates prolonged cloud cover and gives extra confidence in an above-normal summer rainfall season.

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South African Weather Service: Increased chances of above-normal rainfall predicted for summer 2025/2026!

The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has released its latest Seasonal Climate Watch for the period November 2025 to March 2026, offering insight into South Africa's expected weather trends. According to SAWS, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains in a neutral phase but is now moving closer to a La Niña state. Forecast models suggest that a weak La Niña event could develop during the upcoming summer, with confidence in this outcome increasing as the season approaches.

Typically, La Niña conditions bring above-normal rainfall to northeastern South Africa, particularly affecting provinces such as Limpopo, Mpumalanga, and KwaZulu-Natal, as well as the northern parts of the Free State and Gauteng. The latest projections indicate that these regions are likely to experience wetter-than-usual conditions through the summer and late-summer months.

For travellers and holidaymakers, the expected weather pattern means lush green landscapes, flowing rivers, and vibrant wildlife activity - especially in destinations such as the Kruger National Park, iSimangaliso Wetland Park, and Drakensberg Mountains. While brief afternoon showers and thunderstorms may occur, mornings are often clear and warm, providing excellent opportunities for game drives, birdwatching, and photography. Visitors are advised to pack light rain gear and plan for flexible itineraries, particularly when exploring remote or off-road areas where rain might affect accessibility.

In terms of temperature, minimum temperatures are expected to remain above average across most of South Africa, while maximum temperatures may vary between above- and below-normal levels. The expected periods of below-normal maximums are linked to prolonged cloud cover - a further indication of an active rainfall season.

SAWS will continue to monitor weather and climate developments closely and provide regular updates as new data emerges. The latest outlook suggests that South Africa could be heading into a season of increased rainfall, especially in the country’s summer rainfall regions - promising refreshing, scenic travel conditions and vibrant natural experiences for visitors.

 

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SAWS forecast: What tourists can expect from South Africa’s summer 2025/26!

The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has published its latest Seasonal Climate Watch for the period October 2025 to February 2026. Current data shows that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains in a neutral state but has cooled rapidly over the past month. Forecast models now indicate an increasing likelihood of at least a weak La Niña event developing during the upcoming summer.

As the traditional period of ENSO uncertainty (winter to early spring) comes to an end, predictions are becoming more reliable. While a few outlooks still suggest neutral conditions, confidence is steadily growing that La Niña will dominate South Africa’s summer climate.

Typically, La Niña brings above-normal summer rainfall to the northeastern regions of South Africa, including key areas that receive the bulk of the country’s seasonal rains. According to SAWS, most of the northeast can expect wetter-than-usual conditions from late spring into mid-summer. However, some localized forecasts suggest that parts of Mpumalanga and Limpopo could experience below-normal rainfall during the same period.

When it comes to temperatures, minimum and maximum values are expected to trend above-normal across most of South Africa during late spring and summer. The only exception is the southwestern coastal belt, where maximum temperatures are predicted to be slightly below-normal.

This forecast highlights the importance of preparing for shifting climate patterns, especially in agriculture, tourism, and water management sectors.

 

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South African Weather Service releases Seasonal Climate Watch: September 2025 – January 2026 outlook!

The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has released its latest Seasonal Climate Watch, covering the period September 2025 to January 2026. According to SAWS, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a neutral phase, but climate models suggest that South Africa may transition into a weak La Niña event during the upcoming summer. While it is still too early to make precise forecasts about ENSO’s full impact, more reliable predictions are expected in the coming months as models improve.

Rainfall outlook
The North-Eastern regions of South Africa - including Limpopo, Mpumalanga, Gauteng, and parts of KwaZulu-Natal - are likely to see above-normal rainfall during spring and early summer. This could be welcome news for farmers, nature lovers, and travellers planning safaris, as wetter conditions typically bring lush green landscapes and excellent wildlife sightings.
Although some uncertainty remains, a continued trend toward La Niña would significantly strengthen confidence in above-average summer rainfall.

Temperature outlook
Both minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to be above-normal across most of South Africa during spring. Travellers can expect warm days, which are ideal for outdoor adventures - but should also prepare for possible afternoon thunderstorms in summer-rainfall regions.

 

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South African Weather Service releases Seasonal Climate Watch: August – December 2025 outlook!

The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has published its latest Seasonal Climate Watch, offering a long-range weather outlook for the period August to December 2025. The report highlights that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains in a neutral phase, with no significant shifts anticipated in the coming months. It's important to note that ENSO typically has minimal influence on South Africa’s climate during the winter season and is not expected to play a major role during this period.

As South Africa transitions into spring and early summer, rainfall patterns begin to shift, particularly across the eastern and southeastern regions. According to SAWS, these areas can expect above-normal rainfall during early and mid-spring, while most other regions are likely to experience below-normal rainfall.
Heading into late spring, however, below-normal rainfall is forecasted for most parts of South Africa.
In terms of temperature, above-normal minimum and maximum temperatures are expected across large portions of the country throughout the spring months.

Travellers and residents should remain informed and plan accordingly, especially in regions sensitive to changing rainfall and temperature trends.

South African Weather Service (SAWS) releases seasonal climate outlook for July to November 2025!

The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has released its Seasonal Climate Watch for the period July to November 2025. According to the report, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains in a neutral phase and is expected to stay neutral for the coming months. However, ENSO typically has minimal influence on South Africa's winter weather patterns and is not anticipated to significantly affect the climate during this period.
As the country transitions from late winter into early and mid-spring, seasonal rainfall is mainly expected over the southwestern parts of South Africa, as well as along the southern and eastern coastal regions. While the southwestern areas are forecast to experience below-normal rainfall, the eastern coastal regions - including parts of KwaZulu-Natal and the Eastern Cape - are likely to receive above-normal rainfall during early to mid-spring.
Temperature-wise, both minimum and maximum temperatures are projected to be above-normal across most of South Africa throughout the late winter and spring month.

Average high and low temperatures in Cape Town, South Africa, from July to 

November. Data compiled from Rough Guides, Holiday-Weather, 
and Climates to Travel

 

South Africa seasonal weather update: June - October 2025 forecast released!

The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has published its Seasonal Climate Watch for the period June to October 2025. According to the latest report, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains in a neutral phase and is expected to stay neutral for the foreseeable future. While ENSO is a key global climate driver, it typically has minimal influence on South Africa’s winter weather patterns and is not expected to significantly affect conditions during this period.

Rainfall during winter and early spring is typically concentrated in the southwestern regions of South Africa as well as the southern and eastern coastal areas. The forecast indicates that:

• Mid-winter: Both the southwest and eastern coastal regions may experience above-normal rainfall.
• Late winter to early spring: The eastern coastal areas are expected to continue seeing above-normal rainfall, while the southwest is likely to shift to below-normal precipitation.

The majority of South Africa is forecast to experience above-normal minimum and maximum temperatures throughout the winter season. However, parts of the southern coastal belt may see below-normal temperatures, offering cooler-than-usual conditions in these areas.

While ENSO remains neutral and largely uninfluential for South Africa this winter, localized weather patterns will shape rainfall and temperature across the country. Travellers and residents can expect warmer-than-average temperatures in most regions, with variable rainfall focused primarily on the coastal and southwestern areas.

South African Winter Climate Watch 2025: What to expect from May to September?

The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has released its Seasonal Climate Watch for the period May to September 2025. According to the latest update, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has returned to a neutral phase, and is expected to remain neutral throughout the upcoming months. While ENSO typically influences global weather patterns, its impact on South Africa’s winter climate is usually limited and is not expected to significantly affect conditions during this season.

As early winter approaches (May–June–July), SAWS highlights a shift in weather focus to the south-western regions of South Africa, along with the southern and eastern coastal areas. These parts of the country are forecast to experience below-normal rainfall across early, mid, and late winter.

In terms of temperature, the majority of South Africa can expect above-normal minimum and maximum temperatures during the winter months. However, some southern coastal areas may experience below-normal temperatures, offering a contrast to the broader national trend.

Travellers, residents, and those planning activities during the South African winter should prepare for warmer-than-usual weather and drier conditions, especially in the coastal and south-western regions.

South Africa's seasonal climate forecast: What to expect from April to August 2025

The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has released its Seasonal Climate Watch for April to August 2025. According to SAWS, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has transitioned to a neutral state and is expected to remain neutral in the coming months. However, ENSO typically has limited influence on South Africa’s winter climate, meaning its impact is expected to be minimal.

Rainfall outlook: Below-normal in the southwest, above-normal along the coast

As autumn transitions into winter, South Africa’s southwestern regions are forecasted to experience below-normal rainfall between April and August 2025. Meanwhile, the southern and eastern coastal areas are likely to receive above-normal rainfall, which could influence local weather patterns and agricultural conditions.

Temperature forecast: Warmer-than-usual conditions expected

SAWS predicts that minimum and maximum temperatures will be above-normal across most of South Africa. However, the southern and southeastern coastal areas are expected to experience below-normal maximum temperatures, offering cooler-than-usual conditions in these regions.

South Africa: Seasonal rainfall & temperature outlook (January to May 2025)!

The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has issued the Seasonal Climate Watch for January to May 2025. The outlook shows that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains in a neutral state and is expected to weaken further. Forecasts suggest that a weak La Niña may develop by mid-summer, potentially impacting South Africa’s summer rainfall only in the latter part of the season. However, there is considerable uncertainty about whether a La Niña event will occur.

Predictions point to above-normal rainfall in parts of South Africa’s northeastern central and coastal areas during late summer, with this trend shifting to the eastern regions in autumn. Minimum and maximum temperatures are generally expected to be above-normal across the country during the forecast period, except for the southern coastal areas, where below-normal maximum temperatures are more likely throughout the summer.

South Africa: Seasonal rainfall & temperature outlook (December 2024 to April 2025)!

The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has released the Seasonal Climate Watch for the period December 2024 to April 2025. According to the seasonal outlook, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently still in a neutral state and is predicted to weaken further. Current predictions indicate the development of a weak La Niña state only during mid-summer and therefore may only affect South Africa’s summer rainfall during the latter parts of the season. There is also still significant uncertainty in the predictions at this stage on whether a La Niña event will occur.
Current predictions indicate above-normal rainfall for parts of the north-eastern central and coastal areas of South Africa, with most parts of the summer rainfall areas expected to recieve below-normal rainfall. During the latter parts of summer (February to April 2025) there is a widespread increase in chances for above-normal rainfall over the summer rainfall areas, potentially indicating a very late influence from the potential La Niña event.
Minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to be mostly above-normal in South Africa for the
forecast period. However, the southern coastal areas of the country indicate that below-normal temperatures are more likely throughout the summer period.

South Africa: Seasonal rainfall & temperature outlook (November 2024 to March 2025)!

The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has released the Seasonal Climate Watch for the period November 2024 to March 2025. According to the seasonal outlook, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently still in a neutral state. It is predicted to weaken further and current predictions indicate the development of a weak La Niña state during the start of the summer season. However, there is still significant uncertainty in the predictions. It is advised to monitor the ENSO system during the start of the summer season, as it may change the rainfall outlook for the summer rainfall regions if and when the La Niña materializes.
Current predictions indicate above-normal rainfall for most north-eastern summer rainfall regions
in South Africa during the entire summer period. Some interior regions however still indicate below-normal rainfall during the mid- and late-summer seasons. These predictions may change if the ENSO predictions become more certain towards a La Niña state, and as such continued monitoring of future seasonal climate watches are advised.
Minimum and maximum temperatures in South Africa are expected to be mostly above-normal countrywide for the forecast period (November 2024 to March 2025).

South Africa: Seasonal rainfall & temperature outlook (October 2024 to February 2025)!

The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has released the Seasonal Climate Watch for the period October 2024 to February 2025. According to the seasonal outlook, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently still in a neutral state and is predicted to weaken further. Current predictions indicate the development of a La Niña state during the start of the summer season, however, there is still significant uncertainty in the predictions.
Current predictions focus on the early- and mid-summer seasons and indicate wetter conditions over the interior of South Africa. The north-eastern parts however at this stage indicate drier conditions extending through to the mid-summer period. These predictions may change if the ENSO predictions become more certain towards a La Niña state.
Minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to be mostly above-normal in South Africa for the forecast period (October 2024 to February 2025).

South Africa: Seasonal rainfall & temperature outlook (September 2024 - January 2025)!

The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has released the Seasonal Climate Watch for the period September 2024 to January 2025. According to the seasonal outlook, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently still in a neutral state and is predicted to weaken further. Current predictions indicate the development of a La Nina state during the start of the summer season, however, there is still significant uncertainty in the predictions.
Current predictions focus on the spring and early summer seasons in South Africa and indicate wetter conditions along the south-eastern coastal areas during spring as well as the central parts in early summer. Drier conditions are expected over most of the north-eastern half of South Africa for the entire forecast period. These predictions may change if the ENSO predictions become more certain towards a La Nina state, and as such continues monitoring of future seasonal climate watches are advised.
Minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to be mostly above-normal in South Africa for the
forecast period (September 2024 to January 2025).

South Africa: Seasonal rainfall & temperature outlook (July 2024 - November 2024)!

The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has released the Seasonal Climate Watch for the period July 2024 to November 2024. According to the seasonal outlook, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently still in a neutral state and is predicted to weaken further. However current predictions are mixed in whether it will weaken towards a La Niña state during South Africa's next summer season.
South Africa is now in the middle of the winter season, and as such weather systems occurring during this season are notoriously difficult to predict at a seasonal timescale. These systems typically have the largest impact along the southern to southeastern coastal areas.
The SAWS multi-model rainfall forecast indicates mostly below-normal rainfall over most of South Africa during July 2024 and November 2024. Minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to be mostly above-normal countrywide for the forecast period (July 2024 - November 2024).