The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has released its latest Seasonal Climate Watch for the period December 2025 to April 2026. According to the outlook, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is still in a neutral state; however, it is closing in on transitioning to a weak La Niña state. Predictions indicate that South Africa is moving towards a weak La Niña event during the coming summer season. Most predictions indicate that there will be a short and weak La Niña state during mid- and late summer. The usual effect of La Niña on South Africa is for an increased likelihood to receive above-normal rainfall over the north-eastern parts of the country during summer.
Most of the areas that receive significant rainfall in the coming summer are situated in the north-east of South Africa. Most of these areas are expected to receive above-normal rainfall during the forecast period up until late-summer.
Minimum temperatures are largely expected to be above-normal for most parts of South Africa during summer, with maximum temperatures likely to be below-normal for the north-eastern parts of the country and above-normal for the south-west. This increased likelihood of below-normal maximum temperatures indicates prolonged cloud cover and gives extra confidence in an above-normal summer rainfall season.
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