Travellers planning a holiday to South Africa over the coming summer and autumn seasons should take note of evolving climate patterns, as meteorologists indicate a likely transition toward a weak La Niña event later in the summer.
According to South Africa’s latest Seasonal Climate Watch for January to May 2026, weather patterns are currently stable, with no strong El Niño or La Niña in place. However, forecasters expect a brief and mild shift towards La Niña conditions later in the summer. While this is not expected to cause extreme weather, it can influence when and where rain falls, as well as day- and night-time temperatures - factors worth keeping in mind when planning safaris, coastal holidays, or scenic road trips in South Africa.
Increased rainfall likely in key safari regions
Historically, La Niña conditions increase the likelihood of above-normal rainfall in north-eastern South Africa, especially during summer. This is particularly relevant for travellers visiting popular safari and wildlife destinations such as:
For safari enthusiasts, increased rainfall can mean lush landscapes, abundant water sources, and excellent birdlife, although it may also result in higher humidity and occasional road closures in remote areas. Travellers planning self-drive safaris or overland trips should factor this into their itineraries.
Late summer and autumn outlook: What to expect
During late summer and early autumn, most of South Africa's traditionally rainy regions are expected to receive above-normal rainfall. This can be beneficial for nature-based travel, photography, and scenic routes, but travellers should remain flexible with outdoor activities.
As autumn progresses into mid-autumn, rainfall typically decreases over the north-eastern parts of the country. However, forecasts suggest that central regions of South Africa may still experience above-normal rainfall, which could affect road travel and outdoor sightseeing in those areas.
In contrast, southern and eastern coastal regions, including parts of the Western Cape and Eastern Cape, are expected to receive below-normal rainfall during autumn, even though these areas usually still receive meaningful precipitation at this time of year. For travellers, this could translate into drier, more stable conditions, ideal for coastal road trips, wine tourism, and city breaks.
Temperature trends: Warmer nights ahead
Temperature forecasts indicate that minimum temperatures (night-time lows) are expected to be above normal across most of South Africa during summer. This is relevant for travellers camping, staying in safari lodges, or planning outdoor evening activities.
Maximum daytime temperatures show some uncertainty during late summer and early autumn. However, by mid-autumn, above-normal daytime temperatures are expected across much of the country, suggesting generally warmer and more pleasant travel conditions, particularly outside peak summer heat.
What this means for holiday planning
For travellers and tourists, the expected weak La Niña pattern suggests:
- Excellent green-season safaris in the north-east
- Potentially wetter conditions for summer road trips and outdoor adventures
- Drier autumn weather along southern and eastern coastal destinations
- Warmer nights, especially relevant for camping and lodge stays
As always, travellers are advised to monitor local weather updates, build flexibility into itineraries, and plan accommodation and transport accordingly—especially when travelling during South Africa’s summer rainfall season.
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