The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has published its latest Seasonal Climate Watch for the period October 2025 to February 2026. Current data shows that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains in a neutral state but has cooled rapidly over the past month. Forecast models now indicate an increasing likelihood of at least a weak La Niña event developing during the upcoming summer.
As the traditional period of ENSO uncertainty (winter to early spring) comes to an end, predictions are becoming more reliable. While a few outlooks still suggest neutral conditions, confidence is steadily growing that La Niña will dominate South Africa’s summer climate.
Typically, La Niña brings above-normal summer rainfall to the northeastern regions of South Africa, including key areas that receive the bulk of the country’s seasonal rains. According to SAWS, most of the northeast can expect wetter-than-usual conditions from late spring into mid-summer. However, some localized forecasts suggest that parts of Mpumalanga and Limpopo could experience below-normal rainfall during the same period.
When it comes to temperatures, minimum and maximum values are expected to trend above-normal across most of South Africa during late spring and summer. The only exception is the southwestern coastal belt, where maximum temperatures are predicted to be slightly below-normal.
This forecast highlights the importance of preparing for shifting climate patterns, especially in agriculture, tourism, and water management sectors.
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